Tesla Inc. shares have tumbled in 2026, but Wall Street analysts are increasingly reluctant to tell investors to sell.
Sell ratings now account for just 13.1% of 61 analyst recommendations on Tesla, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the lowest share since April 2023, when concerns about profit margins weighed on its valuation and 12.8% of analysts recommended dumping the stock.
The decline in bearish calls comes as as Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk tries to transform Tesla from a carmaker into a powerhouse in physical artificial intelligence, shifting its focus from electric vehicles toward self-driving robotaxis and humanoid robots. Tesla’s shares have also dropped nearly 30% from the record high hit in December, when almost one quarter of analysts were bearish on the stock.
“There’s a bit of a ‘don’t bet against Musk’ vibe here,” said Max Gokhman, senior vice president at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. “He’s shown that after long periods of missing deadlines a moonshot may materialize. It’s better for an analyst to be seen as having no view than the wrong view.”
Franklin Templeton owns Tesla stock.
Less skepticism doesn’t necessarily mean more optimism. Tesla lost its latest sell rating not because an analyst upgraded the stock but because longtime skeptic Colin Langan left Wells Fargo. After Langan’s departure, the bank suspended coverage of Tesla and 17 other auto companies.
At the same time, hold-equivalent ratings on Tesla have risen to their highest share of overall recommendations in more than two years. Tesla shares are down 21% this year, compared with a 12% gain in the S&P 500.
Tesla remains an outlier among its megacap peers. Fewer than 2% of analysts have negative ratings on five of the Magnificent Seven companies, while 10.7% are bearish on Apple Inc.
Analysts covering Tesla “increasingly recognize that it has potentially significant optionality in autonomy, robotics and AI, which makes a traditional automotive valuation incomplete,” said Ivan Feinseth at Tigress Financial Partners. “But that also raises the execution bar: the greater the valuation attributed to those future businesses, the more Tesla eventually has to demonstrate that they can generate meaningful revenue, margins and returns.”
Tesla’s record of delivering on those ambitions has been uneven. Critics have long faulted Musk and Tesla for overpromising and missing deadlines, while Wall Street has waited for self-driving technology and Optimus robots to become meaningful sources of profit.
In recent weeks, the company’s Cybercab debut fell short of investor expectations and prompted a federal probe of its compliance with safety standards. Tesla is also expected to report third-quarter vehicle deliveries Friday, and analysts on average forecast about a 7% drop in sales year-over-year, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Still, Musk has achieved ambitions that once appeared out of reach, and his supporters believe he can do so again. Many investors bullish on Musk also hope he will combine Tesla with SpaceX, the rocket, satellite and AI company he also helms.
“The trend for AI hopefuls is constructive but investors are grounded,” according to Dec Mullarkey at SLC Management, which owns Tesla shares through index positions. “They are demanding evidence of revenue potential and are more sober on valuations.” Conversely, he said “equity analysts in general tend to be an optimistic group.”
