Weighing the Week Ahead: Should We Fear the Fed?

The calendar has little important data. Friday’s sharp selling was widely attributed to the fear of a Fed rate hike in September. Is it time? Should we fear the Fed?

Last Week

There was not much news, and it was another mixed picture.

Theme Recap

In my last WTWA, I predicted a continuing discussion of the Fed and the timing of the first rate increase, combined with concern over a September market correction. The first part was pretty accurate all week, but the market remained quiet. The modest trading range ended spectacularly on Friday., The “C” word is now on the lips of many.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short. The overall range, once again, is very narrow. Doug’s take is that Friday was all about the Fed. He writes as follows:

Today’s action essentially confirms the metaphor of an equity market infant nursing on mother Fed’s breast. The selloff was triggered initially by hawkish remarks by the normally dovish Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, a voting member of the FOMC. But more surprising was the announcement of an unannounced speech by even more dovish Lael Brainard at the open of the FOMC week, which runs counter to the general policy a silent Fed prior to the FOMC meeting end.

As you will see in today’s “Final Thought,” I have a very different interpretation, still consistent with the data.

Doug has a special knack for pulling together all of the relevant information. His charts save more than a thousand words! Read his entire post where he adds analysis and several other charts providing long-term perspective.

A Two-Question Quiz

  1. The recent Purchasing managers index for manufacturing recently registered 49.4. Last week’s “services” index came in at 51.4. Each data series has a long-term relationship with GDP. Which of these reports implies the higher rate of economic growth? Which one implies an impending recession? [See conclusion for the answer.]
  2. Suppose you are in an NFL “survivor” pool. You just need to pick a team that will not lose that week. No point spread. What are your odds of making it through two weeks? You may pick the biggest favorite each week.

The News

Each week I break down events into good and bad. Often there is an “ugly” and on rare occasion something really good. My working definition of “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!

The Good

  • Initial jobless claims fell to 259K, down from the prior week and continuing recent low levels.
  • The Beige Book was mildly positive, providing support for the modest growth scenario.
  • Framing lumber prices remain strong. (Calculated Risk).
  • Sentiment remains bullish. Dana Lyons looks at the ISE Call/Put ratio to refute the idea of a “frothy” market.

  • Durable goods orders had a solid rebound from earlier weakness, increasing 4.4%
  • The JOLTS report registered a new high in job openings and continued strength reflected in the quit rate. This shows the number of people voluntarily leaving their jobs. Josh Brown has a good discussion of this point. The labor market structure from the report is less encouraging. The ratio of unemployment to job vacancies confirms non-recessionary conditions, but also a mismatch between available jobs and workers. (Simple explanation here. Also a good chart via The Daily Shot).