Whether you surf the Internet for information about the precious metals and mining stocks or receive newsletters by snail mail, you're exposed to predictions by all and sundry:
- How high will prices go?
- How long will it take?
- Will they remain elevated if/when they reach record nominal and/or inflation-adjusted highs?
Truth be told, all of us are "inquiring minds who would like to know." We want to believe that someone somewhere can predict the future. So we seek out gurus who might have special knowledge that puts us on the inside track.
It could be on a site like GoldSeek.com, where newsletter writers publish a portion of their work a short time after subscribers have read the current issue (perhaps from a subscription costing $10 a month...or $3,000 a year).
At the edge of propriety, a small number of "tire kickers" – the bane of the subscription newsletter industry – sign up, take a position in the recommendations, and then cancel their subscription.
A subset of this is the legitimate subscriber who, as soon as a new issue comes out, buys the stock pick without even reading why it's being recommended!
Beyond the fact that they will always need to be given the proverbial fish rather than learning how to fish for themselves – their fickle behavior causes them to view the future through a short-term, near-sighted lens. They will never be able to establish a core position, hold onto it for the majority of a bull run, then sell into a late-term rise for a substantial profit.