Weighing the Week Ahead: Santa Rally Trumped?

2017 begins with plenty of economic data crammed into a short week. While most expected at least a touch of Dow 20K last week, it did not happen. The conversation quickly shifted to why the rally stalled out. In the coming week, the punditry will be asking:

Should we expect a weak start to 2017?

Last Week

Last week there was some soft economic news, but this week showed strength. There was little apparent market effect.

Theme Recap

In my last WTWA, two weeks ago, I predicted a shift from the Dow 20K obsession to developing a new list of market worries. That was a good guess, although as late as Wednesday some TV experts were debating whether 20K would be achieved by the end of the week. That represented another 55 points or so. Sheesh!

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short. He captures the trend for the week and the narrow range.

Doug has a special knack for pulling together all the relevant information. His charts save more than a thousand words! Read his entire post where he adds analysis grounded in data and several more charts providing long-term perspective. This additional choice captures the pre-election period, the Trump Rally, and last week’s selling.

The News

Each week I break down events into good and bad. Often there is an “ugly” and on rare occasion something very positive. My working definition of “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!

This week’s news was quite good—almost all positive. I make objective calls, which means not stretching to achieve a false balance. If I missed something for the “bad” list, please feel free to suggest it in the comments.