Will a Big Week for Data (finally) Bring Volatility?

The holiday-shortened week ahead features many economic reports, including the most important. The biggest news is at week’s end, so both market participants and pundits will have time to settle in after the long weekend. When they get around to the calendar, I expect many to be asking:

Will we finally see some volatility?

Last Week

Last week the economic news was mixed, but the market showed strength anyway.

Theme Recap

In my last WTWA I predicted a quiet week for data with plenty of talk about the Fed. That was a reasonable guess, but there was not really a dominant theme. There was some discussion about the Fed balance sheet and policy changes, but it was competing with plenty of other news.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a chart of market performance.

While there were not many big swings, the 1.4% gain for the week also took markets to intra-day highs.

The News

Each week I break down events into good and bad. Often there is an “ugly” and on rare occasion something very positive. My working definition of “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!

The economic news last week was mixed, but the market reaction was positive.