Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Black Friday Lead to a Green Market?

The economic calendar includes few reports, crammed into two days of a holiday-shortened week. Many will be taking time off – including some of the “A List” pundits. I expect to see some new faces on financial television and a lot of discussion about consumers and the economy. Many will be asking:

What does Black Friday mean for the economy, and for stocks?

Last Week Recap

In the last edition of WTWA I suggested that housing would be the most important story, and that some would focus on millennials as a potential market driver. I may have been accurate on the biggest story, but not on the media attention. Allegations of sexual misconduct seem to command popular interest and improve readership and ratings. Even the story about elephants pushed housing news aside.

The ability to influence the current agenda is extremely important, but it deserves more analysis than I can provide here. A future topic on my ever-growing agenda.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short via Jill Mislinski. She notes the loss of 0.13% on the week. Once again, it was a week of very low volatility; the intra-week range was only about 1.5%. Eddy Elfenbein takes note, and provides a great perspective on the current market. A small decline stands out after 54 consecutive days where the market closed within 1% of the all-time high.

Doug has a special knack for pulling together all the relevant information. His charts save more than a thousand words! Read the entire post for several more charts providing long-term perspective, including the size and frequency of drawdowns.