Weighing the Week Ahead: Is this an Inflection Point for Both Stocks and the Economy?

The economic calendar is normal, but some of the results might not be released on schedule. If the government remains shut down, economic news may take a back seat to the political maneuvering. While we don’t know how that will play out, we can expect an important stream of corporate earnings reports. With competing news from several fronts, I expect pundits to focus on possible changes in direction. Many will be asking:

Should we be probing for an inflection point? In stocks, the economy, or both?

Last Week Recap

In the last edition of WTWA I expected a focus on earnings reports and the confusing impacts of the recent tax legislation. There was some of that, but much more attention on the shutdown saga. Even that could not compete with the public interest in the name for a baby.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. I especially like the Doug Short design with Jill Mislinski updates and commentary. You can see many important features in a single look. She notes the new records along with other indicators. The entire post is well worth reading for the collection of charts and analytical observations.

The trading range for the week was still below 2%, but it was nearly covered in a single day. The moves seemed dramatic, but are still well below the long-term averages.

Personal Note

I am off next weekend. Wish me luck. I am the teammate of Mrs. OldProf and her favorite bridge partner. Much is expected! I will try to do an abbreviated update including the indicators.

The News

Each week I break down events into good and bad. For our purposes, “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!

The economic news leaned positive. I thought that the Beige Book might draw more attention, but it lacked significant changes. I recommend Steven Hansen’s summary – an effective and efficient way to get any important information.