Last week, Treasury announced that it expects to borrow $617 billion in the first half of 2018, vs. $75 billion in the first two quarters of 2017, and announced increases in the sizes of its regular monthly auctions of notes and bonds. It should then be no surprise why bond yields are rising.
Once a quarter, Treasury announces its expected borrowing need. It lays out the auction calendar and gives guidance on the sizes of the various auctions. These are expectations, actual borrowing will depend on tax receipts and the amount of cash it chooses to hold at the end of the quarter. However, while borrowing in 1H18 may be higher or lower than anticipated, the expectations is that there will be a lot more borrowing this year.
One might expect that to be related to the tax bill. Tax losses were more valuable in 2017, so much of what was underwater should have been written off, reducing federal tax receipts. However, the monthly Treasury statements show an increase in revenues for the Oct-Dec quarter relative to a year earlier.
Lower tax payments may show up in the January figures (the Treasury Budget figures will released on February 12).