The Inflationary Impact of Ageing

"Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair."
Sam Ewing

Have you bought The End of Indexing yet?

2½ years of hard work, day and night, has come to an end. The End of Indexing (my new book) is finally out and can be found in various book stores around the world or, alternatively, you can order it from Amazon or directly from the publisher (Harriman House).

I don’t often make promises in the Absolute Return Letter. My compliance manager tells me that the combination of providing investment advice and making promises is not a good one. Having said that, I will now make you a rare promise. I will guarantee that the better The End of Indexing sells, the less I will mention it going forward.

Having said that, I hope you’ll forgive me for having done a bit of marketing in the last few letters. I am no Warren Buffett, and I have to use the marketing channels at my disposal. So, if you haven’t yet bought the book, please give it some consideration (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: The front cover of The End of Indexing
‍Exhibit 1: The front cover of The End of Indexing
Sources: Harriman House & True Design

The structural outlook for inflation

In last month’s Absolute Return Letter I discussed the cyclical outlook for inflation, and it wasn’t my intention to re-visit the topic only a month later, but sometimes things happen when you least expect it.

In this case, only a few weeks ago, I received a new research paper from Oxford Economics, which made it virtually impossible for me not to bring up the topic of inflation again. In a few minutes you’ll understand why, but let’s start somewhere else. Let’s begin by looking at how investors perceive the impact of ageing on inflation, because that’s not so straightforward.