Weighing the Week Ahead: Don’t Get Framed!

The market remains in a narrow trading range, near the record highs. There have been some relatively minor leadership changes. This reflects not investor complacency, but intense disagreement about how to interpret data and events. Each viewpoint has a history, a philosophy, and problem something to sell!

The power to set the agenda and to frame the issues is more important than most understand. The punditry will not be explaining this in the week ahead, but they will be practicing it. By watching for it (or simply ignoring financial news) you can avoid the biggest current investment danger:

Don’t Get Framed!

Last Week Recap

In my last edition of WTWA I asked what might disrupt the delicate balance of news. That was a good question. Despite plenty of discussion it remained unanswered during my vacation. Earnings are strong as are economic reports. The only changing elements are the subjects of tweets and assorted corporate issues.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. I especially like the version updated each week by Jill Mislinski. She includes a lot of valuable information in a single visual. The full post has even more charts and analysis, including commentary on volume. Check it out.

The market was headed for a nice weekly gain until Friday’s trading. The late-day rebound held the week’s loss to 25 bps. Despite the swingy chart the range for the week was only 1.3%. I summarize actual and implied volatility each week in our Indicator Snapshot section below. Volatility remains well below the long-term range.

In the same post Jill includes an update on drawdowns. This helps us see the nature of this rally – occasional declines even in the context of a major stock rally.

Personal Note

Mrs. OldProf and I enjoyed our trip. For me it had the customary effect of forcing my mind away from markets. It helped that our timing was good; the market increased by 1% while we were gone and maintained low volatility. Economic news remained solid, as did corporate earnings reports. If you were going to take some time off, this was a good choice.

I used some extra thinking time to consider priorities. I am committed to making sure that WTWA has timely information on broad themes as well as highlighting specific news and ideas.