Weighing the Week Ahead: Inflation Watch

There is a big economic calendar competing with mid-term election campaign stories. The increase in hourly wages in the employment report offset some market enthusiasm about continuing job market strength. With inflation concerns on a hair trigger, expect special focus on this week’s PPI and CPI. The Beige Book and JOLTS report will also get pundit scrutiny.

Expect pundit focus to be on Inflation Watch.

Once again, this is the wrong emphasis. More on that below.

Last Week Recap

In my last edition of WTWA I provided a preview of the focus on jobs. This was an accurate (but perhaps obvious) call. I added some value by explaining why a good report might not be celebrated by financial markets.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. I especially like the version updated each week by Jill Mislinski. She includes a lot of valuable information in a single visual. The full post has even more charts and analysis, including commentary on volume. Check it out.

The market lost 1.02% on the week, edging lower each day. and has reached a new all-time high. The weekly trading range was about 1.5%, still very low. I summarize actual and implied volatility each week in our Indicator Snapshot section below. Volatility remains well below the long-term average.


Football season has arrived, commanding the full attention of Mrs. OldProf. You may recall that she grew up in Green Bay and is a very knowledgeable fan. (Can you name the positions of all NFL officials in a game. Do you even know how many there are?) Priceonomics has a chart pack based upon data from Seat Guru. They use this to identify the basic fan base by county. Check out the post for some fun with interactive charts and to check out your favorite team. Here is the basic map. It lacks a green dot in Naperville.

And what about fake fans lobbying for the blackout rule (now gone). (WSJ) Bilbo Baggins? (Mrs. OldProf expresses astonishment). Luke Skawalker? Vladimir Stolichnaya? A tried and true methods for a letter-writing campaign has now turned to email.