Weighing the Week Ahead: Can US/China Trade Talks Save the Global Economy?

This week’s economic calendar is important, including reports on personal income and spending, consumer confidence, and the Fed’s favorite inflation indicators. Despite this, the punditry will be looking toward the week’s end and news from the G20 meetings. Naturally, we can expect some advance leaks. Everyone will be wondering:

Can a US/China trade truce boost the global economy?

Last Week Recap

In last week’s installment of WTWA, I questioned the ever-growing Fed mandate. While not phrased exactly in those terms, much of the last week’s financial commentary had a Fed focus. Somehow, most have come to believe that this is the fundamental force behind financial markets – whether driven by opinion, the President, or financial futures.

Whether you agree with this conclusion or not, it is important to realize its wide acceptance.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. This week I am featuring Jill Mislinski, who conveys a lot of key information in her picture worth more than a thousand words.

With the help of two gap openings, the market rallied 2.2% on the week. This is only slightly smaller than the range of 2.6%. Our weekly Indicator Snapshot provides a handy history of both actual and implied volatility.

Personal Note

Mrs. OldProf and I are still traveling, but I found a few minutes to update the key news and indicators. Next weekend should be a return to normal.


The international pension time bomb.