Weighing the Week Ahead: Chinese Fireworks?

The economic calendar is a big one, featuring the employment situation report on Friday. The rest of the data – ADP employment, auto sales, and the ISM surveys – will be released over 2 ½ days. The US Independence Day celebration on Thursday will provide one type of fireworks. And of course, we have Canada Day on Monday. The combination of events, data, and the calendar make the week ahead even murkier than usual. I expect an initial focus on the US/China trade truce, a shift to discussion of the implications for Fed policy, and a fast exit for the beach. The all-important employment report will be covered by the “B Team” with further reaction next week.

This leaves the remaining pundits to sort out the implications of the trade truce:

Will the market see fireworks from the trade policy shift?

The markets will vote, and the pundits will pontificate. Let the spinning begin!

Last Week Recap

In last week’s installment of WTWA, I predicted a focus on the upcoming G20 meeting and US/China trade talks. I also wrote, “It is absolutely crazy to guess the outcome, and I will not try! Those who think they understand Chinese motives and decision processes are too confident. Those who think they can predict the President’s next move are even further off base”. That did not slow the pundits down at all! Two China experts on Friday afternoon financial TV agreed that Trump and Xi were both benefitting from the standoff and would keep it going through the next Presidential election.

Being an expert on China is not the same as assessing the politics behind decisions in the US, particularly those made by President Trump. I’ll offer more on this topic in today’s “Final Thought.”

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. This week I am featuring Jill Mislinski, who conveys a lot of key information in her picture worth more than a thousand words.

The decline for the week was 0.3% and the range only 1.4% — a very quiet week. Our weekly Indicator Snapshot provides a handy history of both actual and implied volatility.