Weighing the Week Ahead: How Much Has Economic Weakness Hurt Corporate Earnings?

The economic calendar is normal and includes several important reports. I am especially interested in the housing data and retail sales. More important than the economic data is the start of earnings season. With everyone convinced about economic deterioration, expect the pundits to be asking:

How much has the weak global economy affected corporate earnings?

Last Week Recap

In last week’s installment of WTWA, I asked who was really running the Fed. That was a good forecast for the week’s theme. CNBC led with similar stories at the start of the week, and the discussion continued through Thursday’s Powell testimony. Bloomberg and online financial publications also featured the issue of Fed independence. This was also a question during the hearings, as Powell was asked what he would do if the President tried to fire him. (Fill out his term as Chair, he said).

Paul Schatz, finding nothing in the Fed mandate to support a rate cut, makes the score Trump 1 – Powell 0.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. This week I am featuring Jill Mislinski’s version, which combines a lot of information in one picture. The full article also includes several other interesting takes on price movement.

The market posted a quiet, 0.8% gain for the week, with a trading range was only 1.7%. It felt bigger to most market participants because of the early weakness on the return from the long weekend and the spike when Fed Chair Powell’s written testimony was released. My weekly Quant Corner translates this into a volatility calculation which you can compare both to VIX and to past readings.


The Visual Capitalist enlightens us about the Tweeter-in-Chief and his implied views on oil prices.

The News

Each week I break down events into good and bad. For our purposes, “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!

New Deal Democrat’s high frequency indicators are an important part of our regular research. There are three different groups. Long-term indicators and the nowcast remain positive, helped by a dovish Fed. The short-term message has improved to neutral. NDD remains concerned about trade wars.