Weighing the Week Ahead: Are You Part of the Dumb Money?

The economic calendar is light but includes some home sales data and the (old news) Q2 GDP first estimates. Fed speakers will be on the sidelines for the pre-meeting quiet period. Earnings reports remain the most important fresh data for both traders and investors. And of course, there is always the chance of a tweet or two.

In quiet times the punditry loves to look at the markets through the prism of a bull-bear debate. I am seeing some new takes on both sides, but the most colorful is the question:

Are you part of the “Dumb Money?”

Last Week Recap

In last week’s installment of WTWA, I asked how much global economic weakness was affecting corporate earnings. We still don’t have a definitive answer to that question, but it certainly was a hot topic. FactSet’s John Butters reports that earnings are down -1.9% year-over-year but revenues are up 3.8%. This raises concerns about declining net profit margins, a long-time market worry.

Stay tuned!

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. This week I am featuring Jill Mislinski’s version, which combines a lot of information in one picture. The full article also includes several other interesting takes on price movement.

The market declined 1.2%. The chart looks choppy, but the trading range was only 1.5%. Those watching closely were treated to breathless media commentary about moves of less than 1%. Friday’s trading was influenced by a clarification (walking back?) of NY Fed President John Williams, whose need to “act quickly” comment was clarified as an inference from academic research, not a hint of policy actions. My weekly Quant Corner translates this into a volatility calculation which you can compare both to VIX and to past readings.


The Visual Capitalist looks at how four generations of retail investors differ in their perceptions.