Weighing the Week Ahead: Have the Facts Changed Your Mind?

The economic calendar is one of the smallest of the year. With last week’s market decline and increased volatility, pundits who are not on a summer vacation can do some navel-gazing and reconsider their conclusions. Or not. Most will be highlighting evidence that makes them seem smart, of course. What they should be asking is:

Did any of the new information change your mind?

Last Week Recap

In last week’s installment of WTWA, I described the four risky hurdles facing the market. My purpose was to provide a framework for analyzing the avalanche of news and data we would see in a very short time. The market did well with the early hurdles but failed to jump all four. I found last week’s matrix table helpful as I watched events, and I hope you did, too.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. This week I am featuring Jill Mislinski’s version, which combines a lot of information in one picture. The full article also includes several other interesting takes on price movement.

The market lost 3.1% for the week. The trading range was 3.8%. My weekly Quant Corner translates this into a volatility calculation which you can compare both to VIX and to past readings.

Personal Note

I will probably wind up in Mrs. OldProf’s doghouse for writing instead of taking the week off as promised. I’ll try to make it up with some downtime soon.

Thanks to readers for the many suggestions about the best places to live. Many have clearly found their ideal locations. We are looking at each, but we have some pretty restrictive criteria. I really enjoyed my trip to Northwest Arkansas, finding it quite attractive. But I am supposed to keep that secret.