Is the Yield Curve Inversion on the Jackson Hole Agenda?

The economic calendar is very light with reports on only three days. Existing and new home sales reports could be interesting and there are many fans of the leading economic indicators. The combination of empty airtime and some Fed news is like an aphrodisiac to the pundits, all of whom are self-affirmed experts on the Fed. The week includes the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting as well as the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. The theme, Challenges for Monetary Policy, could include nearly anything. The full agenda is announced on Thursday and we know that Chairman Powell will speak on Friday morning. Since market commentators believe that the Fed should focus on the most recent market concerns, I expect the question:

Will the yield curve inversion be part of the Jackson Hole Agenda?

Last Week Recap

In last week’s installment of WTWA, I focused on investor reaction to the recent volatility, asking if you should get out, hide out, or ride it out. That was a good guess for the topic of the week, with market action continuing to drive daily headlines and red “alert” notices on financial television. Trade news was largely responsible for the Monday and Tuesday action, proving that the market continues to treat a tweet and a planned phone call as news. Wednesday’s trading came as a reaction to the temporary inversion of another part of the yield curve, the 2-10 segment.

Those who considered the question with us last weekend were better prepared to deal with another roller coaster week. It helps to have a plan, and that comes from thinking about the week ahead.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. This week I am featuring Jill Mislinski’s version, which combines a lot of information in one picture. The full article also includes several other interesting takes on price movement.

The market lost 1.0% for the week, and the ride was a wild one. The trading range was 4.1% including 3.0% in a single day. My weekly Quant Corner translates this into a volatility calculation which you can compare both to VIX and to past readings. Among the many other helpful charts in this post is the record of +/- 1% trading days over the last few years.