Are All Your Ducks in a Row? Positioning Your Portfolio for the Market’s Next Move

Are All Your Ducks In a Row? Positioning Your Portfolio for the Market’s Next Move

If you’ve paid any kind of attention to recent market headlines, you’ve surely seen the term “recession” among the most prominent topics in your newsfeed. This shouldn’t come as a shock, either—the global growth picture isn’t as rosy as it could be.

Take a look at Germany. There are wide indications that the world’s fourth largest economy is heading into a recession, with its GDP shrinking in the second quarter and its 10-year bond hitting a record-low negative yield. Some analysts warn that U.S. investors should be alert due to a potential spillover effect.

Then there’s the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a forward-looking indicator I write about often. Right now, PMIs are falling around the world. In July, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, its lowest reading since September 2009. Thursday’s August “flash,” or preliminary, reading for the IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI dropped even lower, coming in at 49.9, indicating contraction. According to Morningstar, this is the first time in nearly a decade that the reading declined below the neutral reading mark of 50.0.

U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI drops to 49.9 in August
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