Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Feedback Alter Trump’s Course?

Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Feedback Alter Trump’s Course?

The economic calendar is significant, but fundamentals are taking a secondary role. The Friday Presidential tweetstorm raised uncertainty on trade, the global economy, Fed policy, taxes, and traditional alliances. Attention now turns to the reaction.

Can the widespread negative feedback alter President Trump’s course?

Last Week Recap

In last week’s installment of WTWA, I focused on the recent inversion of the yield curve and the upcoming meeting in Jackson Hole. That was a good guess for the top market issues until Friday morning. With Chairman Powell’s speech in the books and markets calming, the tweets began. The trade war moved a notch higher, and that was only one of many issues.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. This week I am featuring Investing.com’s version. The tags show news events which you can see by visiting the interactive site.

The market lost 1.5% for the week, but if felt much worse. Early gains were erased on Friday. The trading range was 3.6% mostly in a single day. My weekly Quant Corner translates this into a volatility calculation which you can compare both to VIX and to past readings.

Personal Note

Mrs. OldProf and I are enjoying the first leg of our trip. As promised, I am trying to update indicators and add a few observations. I’ll do the same next week if necessary.

The Week Ahead

We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look for and how to react.