The U.K. Just Said No to EU Socialism. Will U.S. Voters Do the Same in 2020?

Let’s begin with a thought experiment.

Imagine you wake up tomorrow from a three and a half-year coma. Everything that’s happened in the meantime—the election of Donald Trump, impeachment, Brexit and more—is a complete mystery to you.

Now imagine that I try to catch you up on what you’ve missed, but instead of handing you a stack of newspapers and magazines with manic headlines, or logging you on to Trump’s Twitter feed, I show you only the data: leading economic indicators, sentiment indices, stock averages. (The U.S. manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) is the one exception, which I’ll get to in a second.)

I show you the unemployment rate in the U.S. and U.K., both of which are at decades-long lows. And Britain’s employment rate, at 76.2 percent as of October, is the highest ever.

U.S. and U.K. Unemployment Rates at Decades-Long Lows
click to enlarge

I show you the phenomenal returns for each of the three U.S. stock indices. The historic bull market is alive and kicking, you learn. And with a handful of trading days left in 2019, there’s plenty of room for this year to be the best of the more than 10-year bull run, beating even 2013, when the S&P 500 surged 32 percent.

Even if 2019 ended today, it would still end up as the 10th or 11th best year for the stock market going back to 1970.

Not All Impeachments Are the Same
click to enlarge

After taking all of this in, you may very well believe, at the worst, that things are just “fine” right now.