Curb Your Enthusiasm

The economic calendar is light and provides little post-COVID19 data. Continuing jobless claims takes on a new importance, and we may get some useful information from the components of the University of Michigan sentiment survey. 96 companies in the S&P 500 will report earnings. The depth of the employment decline and curtailment of normal activity has turned the national debate to how and when the restrictions will end. Investors, encouraged by these apparent plans, are trying to look beyond the recession. This is a good concept but represents a huge emotional swing from just a few weeks ago. Mr. Market is noted for emotion, but sound analysis is more important.

Investors, curb your enthusiasm.

I am not as grouchy as the character created by award winning Larry David, and certainly not as funny. I am concerned that investors are expecting too much, too fast.

Last Week Recap

In my last installment of WTWA, I emphasized the lack of data and intellectual rigor needed to answer the many important questions raised by investors. This was an accurate observation. Speculation replaced analysis for much of the week, resulting in items like these:

JPM: The Worst Might Be Over for Stocks.
While there are the requisite conditions to the forecast, the conclusion is that “most so-called risk assets (typically stocks) have seen their lows and should move higher in the second quarter.”

The Worst is Yet to Come, Says Gundlach, who expects the March low to be taken out, compares the current situation to the 1929 crash, and warns against a “V” recovery.

There was plenty of other discussion about which letter was the best economic description. Thanks to readers who played along with acronym suggestions!

The uninformed commentary led me to post about
The Irrelevance of Financial News
and offer a few tips for discovering what is worth your attention.