Rick Rieder and team outline how to think about portfolios as we enter 2023.
1 or more years of additional interest-rate duration in ‘23 vs. ‘22, to be grown over time: As central banks slow, or pause, their tightening cycles, in sympathy with slowing economic growth and inflation.
2 years of locked-up returns in fixed income assets, at a generational inflection point in yields: A decline in inflation volatility suggests a decline in interest rate volatility too, both from extreme levels.
3 -handle inflation by the end of 2023, driving a decline in rate volatility: Oil’s falling price means it is becoming a deflationary impulse, and leading indicators for housing suggest a correction is in motion (the highest-beta and largest components of CPI, respectively).
4 more months (or less) of data/policy uncertainty, after which the Fed can pause: The market has fully priced in another 100 basis points (bps) of hikes over the next four months.
5 years of runway potential for fixed income to generate outsized returns: The higher we climb up the discount rate mountain, the more vertical is created on the other side.
6% to 6.5% of portfolio carry potential (including anticipated curve rolldown): Without needing to take on much duration, credit, convexity or illiquidity risks.
7% carry (including rolldown) potential in U.S. Investment-Grade: Based on historical returns, at similar entry yields.
