Clear Sentiment on Interest Rate Direction

Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

We did an internal survey among our associates, attempting to get a feel for their views on various economic and fixed income topics. Any survey result concerning the future can net inexact results but nonetheless reveal general sentiment. Attitude, outlook, and opinions can help shape the market.

 10 Year Treasury End of Year

One of the questions asked was where the 10-year Treasury rate was headed in 2024. The graph’s solid blue line depicts the 10-year Treasury path during 2023. The dashed lines reflect the anticipated year-end landing. It is noteworthy that 78% of the sentiment feels that interest rates will be lower by year’s end and when you include those that think interest rates will be the same or lower it climbs to 94%. Less than 6% of financial advisors anticipate higher interest rates.

 Bloomberg Economic 2024 Forecast

Bloomberg provides an Economic Forecast composed of chief economists from major money centers, brokerage firms, and prestigious universities. The results are consistent in that 90% of the economists predict the 10-year Treasury to be about the same or lower by the end of 2024. (orange numbers actual; white number forecast)