In less than one week, advisors will flock to sunny Miami for the annual Exchange conference. Content sessions this year offer advisors insight into growing their business models in unexpected ways, the macro and market environment of 2024, navigating the AI revolution, and more. Alongside great content, we’re also bringing some of the most prominent voices in finance to the stage. J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist Dr. David Kelly recently shared what he’s thinking about and watching in markets ahead of Exchange.
Caruso: Thank you so much for taking the time this morning to meet. We’re in the final stretch, so I want to take a bit of time to talk about your session next Monday morning at Exchange: The Long Last Leg on the Road to Normal: Investing in 2024 and Beyond. How would you summarize your session in your own words?
Kelly: I’m going to provide an economic market backdrop for investors: What’s the investment environment going to be like in 2024? Generally, our base case view is pretty good. I call my base case view for 2024 “two zero two four” because we’re expecting 2% real economic growth, zero recessions, inflation falling to 2%, the unemployment rate staying at or below 4%.
The challenge is valuations, particularly for U.S. large cap equities. Valuations are much higher, and the returns from here are going to be lower because of that.
Overall, I’m going to talk about why we see the economy shaping up that way. Why do we still think the economy can avoid recession? Why are we so convinced that inflation is going to head down to 2%? Then, we’ll talk a little bit about the labor market and if unemployment is low, why don’t we get wage inflation? We’ll then talk a little bit about profits.