Market Viewpoint

David Dali, Head of Portfolio Strategy, provides his 12-month outlook for global equity markets.

EM Recovery Pushed to Second Half, 2024. Stay Active, Patient and Selective

Emerging Markets should recover as monetary conditions ease toward the second half of the year. Accommodative policies typically coincide with a neutral to weaker U.S. dollar and a boost to cyclical stocks which are typically supportive of emerging markets. Consensus earnings growth is overly optimistic, in my view, but bigger profits later this year should also provide a lift to stock prices.


The economic and market forecasts presented herein have been generated by the author and provided for informational purposes only. Forecasts are based on proprietary models and there can be no assurance or guarantee that the forecasts can or will be achieved.

Emerging Markets

  • Emerging markets (EM) index returns have been weighed down by underwhelming earnings growth, the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” interest-rate policy and China’s weak sentiment. However, I expect all three of these headwinds to fade as we progress through 2024. I anticipate China will announce additional corrective actions to address its challenges, which underpins my conviction that Asian and EM equity allocations should recover from a weak start in 2024 leading to outperformance in coming quarters.
  • I’m also maintaining my neutral view on Latin American emerging markets given last year’s strong returns and the vulnerability of the region’s largest economies to a temporary slowdown in the global economy. Tight monetary conditions may dampen economic activity in the near term but should support the region’s currencies.