It's Getting Hot In Here: U.S. CPI Report Explained

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine.” -Benjamin Graham

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It’s Getting Hot In Here…

January’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in hotter than expected. This gave the markets pause as it further stoked fear that the interest rate cuts that the market expected were coming quickly, might actually be further off in the future. Using overnight index swaps as a proxy for market expectations, the 2023 YE expectations were that the Federal Funds rate would be 3.62% at the end of 2024 and 3.03% to end 2025. Those same market forces, just two months later are saying that we should end the year at 4.48% and 3.73% respectively. Expect that the CPI figures will be lumpy as some of the data (like housing) are lagged figures.