T. Rowe Price Research Leader Jay Nogueira on 2024’s Outlook

2024 continues to produce some notable uncertainty for investors. With the prevailing sense being to “hurry up and wait” for new information -- whether about interest rates, inflation, AI, or geopolitical risk -- it can help to check in with industry leaders to hear their thoughts. T. Rowe Price’s Jay Nogueira recently shared his perspective on the outlook for the remainder of 2024 and how the firm’s research approach sets itself apart.

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Nogueira is the director of research for North America within T. Rowe Price’s Equity division. He joined the firm in 2004 as an investment analyst for healthcare equities. He currently oversees the analysts who manage the T. Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research ETF (TSPA).

Nogueira's Outlook on 2024

What, then, is Nogueira’s outlook for the rest of the year? While many market watchers ended 2023 fearing recession, he explained that the market has instead been resilient. That resilience has borne the weight of inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates. The more interesting thing, he pointed out, is the level of concentration in the market.

"The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 represent 36% of the value right now, which is unbelievable, a very high number. The top 10 are also driving the vast majority of the index's returns," Nogueira added. "Over history, the top 10 are usually 10% of the returns."