The Precious Metals Sector’s Impressive Relative Breakout—and What It Portends

The Precious Metals Sector’s Impressive Relative Breakout—and What It Portends

Last week brought dramatic developments across the markets. The plunge in technology stocks, particularly those tied to artificial intelligence, did not surprise us. Recognizing a bubble in search of a pin, we had been expecting it to burst for some time. When it finally began to do so last week, it dragged the broader market down with it.

The catalyst was the Democratic Party’s substantial election gains and the resulting fears that the party would put the brakes on the data center buildup.

What was surprising, however, was the resilience of the precious metals sector. It not only held its ground but actually rose, suggesting that some of the money fleeing technology stocks is rotating into the downtrodden precious metals sector as a safe haven.

The significance becomes even clearer when we compare the sector’s performance with that of the broader market, particularly technology stocks. Before examining that relative performance, we will briefly review the chart for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

On GDX’s two-year chart, we can see that the head-and-shoulders continuation pattern we identified earlier lies within a large symmetrical triangle. Both patterns are now approaching completion.

Last week, GDX began rallying from the triangle’s lower boundary on good volume.

An especially important point is that, during the substantial correction from the late-August peak, the accumulation line did not decline. Instead, it actually advanced.

This is a very bullish divergence. On that basis alone, it is reasonable to expect a sizable uptrend to develop from here. In addition, we have just entered the most bullish time of year for the sector.

gdx chart

Last week’s gains in precious metals stocks were somewhat muted and overshadowed by the heavy declines in technology stocks and the broader market.

We can highlight the extent and significance of the sector’s outperformance by plotting GDX against the Nasdaq Composite Index. A three-month chart allows us to focus on recent developments.

gdx against nasdaq

See more: Seek Shelter From Tech Volatility With Real Asset ETFs