Disruptive Theme of the Week: Some Surprise Winners YTD

In the winner’s column YTD, I likely would not have predicted the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET C+) and Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY C) to be among this year’s top performers, up 100% and 31% respectively.  Both ETFs are distributed by Amplify ETFs and provide exposure to freight futures.  BWET is focused on crude oil tanker freight rates, while BDRY is focused on dry bulk shipping.  Why are these trades working so well YTD?

Crude oil tanker shipping rates hit record levels at the end of 2025.. Even though rates pulled back slightly in January, as you can see from the chart below, tanker rates nearly tripled over the last year for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and in February have soared to new highs thanks to a shortage of tanker vessels.  

South Korea was already a dominant force in the global VLCC market with major shipbuilders like Hanwha Ocean Co. (with a 20% market share), HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., and Samsung Heavy Industries Co. leading in their construction. But recently, a South Korean tycoon-owned shipping company called Sinokor Group, amassed a large share of the tanker market, controlling at least 120 VLCCs and driving up shipping costs dramatically.

Sinokor does not appear to be acting alone, working in conjunction with another shipping company, Mediterranean Shipping Company. All of this is roiling this niche transport market and spooking traders. It is all playing out like an interesting movie plot, but it remains to be seen if it will end happily for investors.

Dry bulk shipping rates are also rising in 2026, due to strong cargo demand for commodities such as critical metals like manganese, nickel, and lithium. Higher demand has been coupled with limited vessel availability along key trading routes such as the Panama Canal (low water levels) and the Red Sea (Iran concerns).  As a result, wet and dry bulk shipping are two ETF trades not on the radar, but outperforming massively YTD.

South Korea’s KOSPI Composite is up over 30% YTD, making it one of the best-performing global markets at the start of this year after surpassing the 5,000 level for the first time. One driver behind this market move is strength among Korean AI and semiconductors companies such as Samsung Electronics (51.5%) and SK Hynix (35.89%). Investors are also enthusiastic about the new Presidential administration of Lee Jae-Myung and its pro-reform agenda aimed at increasing shareholder value.

There are several ETFs that offer targeted exposure to the South Korean market including the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY B) up 37.8% YTD. Other ETFs to consider are the Matthews Korea Active ETF (MKOR ) and the Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF (FLKR), which are both up over 36% this year.

Another tangential ETF play on South Korea’s pop has been the Themes Humanoid Robot ETF (BOTT B+) given its 33% weight in Korea including exposure to two big robotic winners YTD: Yujin Robot (162.2%) and Neuromeka (151.9%).

Energy broadly is up 20% YTD, but oil service stocks have had additional tailwinds with earnings estimates finally bottoming on better prospects for energy pricing going forward.  Oil services stocks also appear to be the biggest beneficiary of regime change in Venezuela.

But the recent uptick in oil services is also about pricing power and technological know-how. In a tight pricing environment, customers must prioritize production and cap-ex solutions yielding the lowest cost. Oil services companies such as SLB (formerly known as Schlumberger) are using AI and digital technology to improve overall efficiency. SLB recently announced a groundbreaking new agentic AI solution called “Tela” for the energy industry to boost productivity, transform workflows, and improve business outcomes.

ETFs providing exposure to the oil service industry include the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH B+) which is up 33.9% YTD and the iShares Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ B+), State Street’s SPDR Oil and Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES B+), and Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF (PXJ C), all up more than 33% YTD as well.

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