The AI boom is reshaping the U.S. economy in ways that are becoming increasingly difficult to separate from the broader macroeconomic outlook. The race to build AI infrastructure has fueled a surge in imports of semiconductors, servers, and other computing equipment, while data center construction has become an increasingly important source of business investment.

With so much attention focused on what the Fed might do at its policy meeting this week, it’s a good time to look back at history to get a sense of how stocks might respond should policymakers hike rates as the market now expects. LPL Research had been characterizing the rate decision as a coin flip until Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting and the strong August jobs report.