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ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI YoY Highest Since September 2013
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 138.4, up 0.4 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 5.20%, up from 4.65% the previous week and its highest since September 2013. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 8.1.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Inches Up
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 138.1, up 0.2 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.65%, up from 4.38% the previous week and its highest since November 2013. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 8.1.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Virtually Unchanged from Last Week
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 137.8, down 0.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.38%, up from 4.16% the previous week and its highest since December 2013. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 8.4.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI YoY Highest Since July 2014
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 137.6, down 0.4 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.77%, up from 3.46% the previous week and its highest since July 2014. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 8.2, up from last week, its highest since February 2013.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI at 138.0, Growth Index Highest Since 2013
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 138.1, down 0.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.46%, up from 3.02% the previous week. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 8.0, up from last week, its highest since February 2013.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 1.1, Growth Index Highest Since 2013
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 138.1, up 1.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.00%, up from 2.53% the previous week. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 7.5, up from last week, its highest since February 2013.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 0.3
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 137.0, up 0.3 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.54%, up from 2.12% the previous week. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 6.9, up from last week.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 0.4
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 136.7, up 0.4 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.12%, up from 2.10% the previous week. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 6.8, down from last week.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Unchanged, Growth Index Highest Since May 2013
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 136.4, unchanged from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.11%, up from 2.08% the previous week and the fourteenth week in positive territory. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 7.2, up from last week and its highest since early May of 2013.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down Slightly, Growth Index Unchanged
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 136.4, down 0.1 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.07%, down from 2.09% the previous week and the thirteenth week in positive territory. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 7.1, unchanged from last week and its highest since early May of 2013.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down Slightly, But Growth Index Increases
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 135.5, down 0.9 from the previous week, which was the highest since December 2007. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.09%, up from a revised 1.91% the previous week and the twelfth week in positive territory. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 7.1, the highest since early May of 2013.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 1.0, YoY at 1.29%
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 136.1, up 1.0 from the previous week. Year-over-year the indicator is now at 1.29%, up from a revised 1.14% the previous week and the ninth week in positive territory. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 6.1, a slight increase from the previous week.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down Slighty, YoY at 0.77%
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 134.5, down 0.5 from the previous week. Year-over-year the indicator is now at 0.77%, down from 0.98% the previous week and the eighth week in positive territory. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 5.3, a decrease of 0.3 from the previous week.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down Slighty, YoY at 1.01%
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 135.0, down 0.7 from the previous week. Year-over-year the indicator is now at 1.01%, down from 1.16% the previous week and the seventh week in positive territory. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 5.7, an increase of 0.3 from the previous week, and the fifth consecutive monthly increase.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up Again, YoY Sixth Positive Week
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 135.7, up 0.2 from the previous week. Year-over-year the indicator is now at 1.16%, up from 0.95% the previous week and the sixth week in positive territory. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 5.4, an increase of 0.9 from the previous week, and well off its interim low of -4.7 in January of last year.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 1.0 From Last Week
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 135.2, up 1.0 from the previous week. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 3.5, an increase of 1.0 from the previous week, and well off its interim low of -4.7 in January of last year. Year-over-year the indicator is now at 0.75%, up from 0.53% the previous week, and in positive territory for the fourth consecutive week.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 1.0 From Last Week
The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 2.5, an increase of 1.0 from the previous week's revised level, and well off its interim low of -4.7 last February. The YoY is now at 0.53%, an increase of 0.21, and in positive territory for the third consecutive week.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 0.2 From Last Week, Still Positive
The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 1.6, an increase of 0.9 from the previous week, and well off its interim low of -4.7 last February. The YoY is now at 0.42%, an increase of 0.27, and in positive territory for the second consecutive week.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 0.6 From Last Week, Fifth Week of Increases
The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -0.7, an increase of 1.3 from the previous week, and well off its interim low of -4.7 last February. The YoY is now at -0.18%, an increase of 0.54, but still in negative territory.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: "Recoveries Remain Resilient"
ECRI currently features an article suggesting that concern over negative trend growth is no reason to panic. Recession is not imminent as we are not yet in a "window of vulnerability." The article also discusses Spain's recent cyclical upturn and warns that one shouldn't assume that a cyclical upturn also means positive long-term trend growth. The overall message is not to "fret about recession just yet".
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Continues With Little to No Change
ECRI's most recent article suggests that wage inflation does not support the case for a rate increase. "The recent rise in wage inflation, having become an obvious fact, is increasingly being used to support the case for rate hikes – including by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who now sees these “tentative signs of stronger wage growth” as a harbinger of inflation."
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Little to No Change
ECRI's most recent article suggests that wage inflation does not support the case for a rate increase. "The recent rise in wage inflation, having become an obvious fact, is increasingly being used to support the case for rate hikes – including by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who now sees these “tentative signs of stronger wage growth” as a harbinger of inflation."
ECRI: "Shifting Patterns in Recessions and Recoveries"
ECRI's most recent article presents slides and notes from ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talk at the Madrid Fund Forum conference. He discussed the relationship between lower trend growth and recessions. "ECRI believes that minimally we're returning to a period of more frequent recessions, as we saw in much of the twentieth century....Going back to at least the 1970s, growth has been stair-stepping down during each successive expansion."
ECRI: "Trend Real GDP Growth Is Converging to 1% a Year"
ECRI's most recent article offers a compelling analysis of the relationship between GDP and two key factors: productivity and the labor force: "With productivity growth and potential labor force growth both averaging 1/2% a year, trend real GDP growth is converging to 1% a year."
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI: "Fed Rate Hike May Be Postponed Due to Inclement Data"
Friday's release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 133.9, down slightly from 134.6 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 1.5, up from the previous week's 1.2, and off its interim low of -4.7 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Friday's release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 132.6, up slightly from 131.5 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -2.5, up from the previous week's -3.3 and off its interim low of -4.9 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Friday's release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 131.6, up slightly from 131.2 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -3.2, up from the previous week's -3.6 and off its interim low of -4.9 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 131.1, down slightly from 131.6 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -3.7, up from the previous week's -4.0 and off its interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.6, unchanged from the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.6, down from the previous week's -4.5 but off the interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.6, up slightly from 130.4 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.5, down from the previous week's -4.2 but off the interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines
When I initiated the dshort web page in late 2005, one of my routine topics was equity valuations, initially inspired by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller's book, Irrational Exuberance, the second edition of which was published earlier that year. I gradually expanded my focus from his cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) to include Ed Easterling's Crestmont P/E, Nobel laureate James Tobin's Q Ratio and my own monthly regression analysis of the S&P 500.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.0, down from 130.8 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.3, down slightly from the previous week's -4.0, but up from the interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.8, down from 131.6 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.0, up from the previous week's -4.3 and the interim -5.0 low in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.8, unchanged to one decimal place from the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -3.9, down from -3.3 the previous week. This is its lowest level since February 2012.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Lakshman Achuthan made a recent appearance (December 24th) on Al Jazeera TV discussing the company's outlook for the US economy in 2015. Despite improvements in GDP and jobs data, Achuthan takes a cautious view. Among other things, he points out that latest year-over-year GDP growth rate of 2.7% (a more intuitive metric than the latest quarterly annualized rate of 5.0%), has happened before since the end of the last recession, only to slide back to lower levels. He identifies US manufacturing as a potentially weak area.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month, which is 1,937.27. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 2,018.05. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.9, down slightly from the previous week's 135.6. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 2.0, down slightly from the previous week's 2.1. On Wednesday, September 10th, Lakshman Achuthan appeared on Wall Street Journal Live, where he stated that Japan is on track for another recession. He included comments about what that means for Europe and the United States.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2013
Earlier today I updated my commentary on household income distribution to include the Census Bureau's release of the 2013 annual data. My focus was on arithmetic mean (average) household incomes by quintile (and the top 5%) over the 46-year history of this data series. The analysis offered some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.9, little changed from the previous week's 134.8. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) dropped to 1.8 from the previous week's 2.3. Last Friday, August 29th, ECRI treated the general public to a new commentary on its website focused on the Fed's seeming complacency about inflation becaused of stalled wage growth. ECRI sees a substantially higher inflation risk.
Results 1–50
of 292 found.
