The US Fed held rates steady in December and plans to continue that stance through 2020. But a lot can happen to change the Fed’s mind—after all, it entered 2019 expecting to hike rates and ended up with three cuts. What does 2020 have in store?
Now that the US and China have agreed to begin easing trade tensions, the fog over China’s markets is starting to lift. Investors should consider Chinese equity opportunities that have been overlooked because of tariff fears.
After a decisive victory in the UK’s general election, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a strong mandate to “get Brexit done.” But the eventual shape of his Brexit deal is still far from clear.
Environmentally minded investors, take note: a controversial new bond format that links a company’s sustainability goals to its bottom line could be a game changer in building a more sustainable future.
Investors continue to question whether US equity valuations are too high, particularly for growth companies and versus other global markets. But standard valuation metrics don’t tell the whole story. Understanding the cost of capital can provide essential insight on valuing stocks.
After a series of disappointing initial public offerings (IPOs), private and public equity investors are becoming more discerning about earnings. And for good reason. Profitable companies outperform by a wide margin over time, even among high-growth companies, which often post losses early in their lifecycles.
Many investors are somewhat skittish about illiquid alternatives because they’re worried about tying up their money for a long time in an investment that they can’t trade or exchange easily. However, illiquidity may actually work to investors’ advantage.
As big tech and media companies face growing concern about the power of their businesses, more questions about environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues are likely to be raised. Social and governance issues deserve greater attention amid increasing regulatory scrutiny of industry giants.
Black Friday is around the corner. Will US shoppers head to the mall? Or are malls out of fashion for good? The debate about the retail apocalypse is playing out in a single bond index.
European stocks have outperformed US equity markets in recent months, after several years of underperformance. Is this the start of a longer trend? It’s too soon to say, but some unfolding developments could signal a reversal of fortune for a long-unloved asset class.
The Fed has signaled it is unlikely to cut interest rates again in December, but we expect further rate cuts next year. We believe the Fed has not yet done enough to protect the economy against headwinds. While we don’t forecast a US recession, we think additional monetary policy easing will be needed to stabilize growth.
It’s easy to overlook government bonds today with yields so low. But their interest-rate sensitivity, or duration, can provide vital protection when riskier assets such as stocks and credit struggle.
Today, ESG issues may be more prominent in investors’ minds and approaches, but quality investors have been asking these questions for some time.
Investors are increasingly asking whether the macroeconomic growth cycle still exists, and, if so, where are we in it? The answers to these important questions have real implications for the way equity investors should think about their portfolios.
There’s growing evidence that private equity markets are beginning to overheat after several high-profile IPO flops. Investors in stocks should pay attention because private funding troubles are also a very public market affair.
It’s easy to get spooked in late-cycle markets. But we think there’s a way to de-risk your portfolio and still generate a decent level of income—no magic spells necessary.
US value stocks staged a strong recovery in September after an extended period of underperformance. While value slipped again in early October, we’re monitoring four signals that might indicate whether we’re on the cusp of a bigger value rebound.
The market is moving very quickly. I can’t say that there’s one aspect that we’re looking at, but one thing I will tell you that I do believe is that we’re a Tweet away from—fill in the blank. It’s just the world that we’re living in at this point.
As defined contribution (DC) plan sponsors know, the US Department of Labor recommends considering both packaged and custom target-date strategies when choosing a solution. As we see it, packaged solutions can learn a few things from fully customized target-date solutions, which are generally used by large and megasize plan sponsors.
Alternative investments have the potential to enhance portfolio returns and reduce risk, but it isn’t easy to determine which alternative works best—and how much of it to own. To get accurate answers, it’s necessary to look beyond traditional asset-allocation approaches.
As economic cycles enter their later stages, investors sometimes find that they’re taking too much risk to generate income. There’s a strategy that can help—and we think now is the time to use it.
Despite the municipal market’s strong year-to-date rally, an aging US expansion and low yields continue to top municipal investors’ concerns as we enter the home stretch of 2019. When conditions are evolving and visibility is limited, active and flexible strategies can help balance risk and reward.
Global stocks advanced in the third quarter, but investor sentiment wobbled amid puzzling signals on macroeconomic growth and monetary policy. Political uncertainty and a cloudier outlook point to more volatility, which should compel investors to intensify their focus on stock fundamentals.
As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) celebrates its 70th anniversary, manufacturing data shows that factories in the world’s second largest economy improved marginally in September, despite the impact of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.
The Fed cut rates again and indicated that one more cut should be enough to shore up growth. We think more will be needed. But will rate cuts work? And if not, what else can the Fed do?
US state attorneys general recently stepped up their scrutiny of big tech’s business practices. With corporate mammoths likely to be in the crosshairs of regulators for some time, equity investors should consider looking beyond the titans for opportunities in the sector.
What sources of market returns can withstand late-cycle uncertainty? By identifying the right ingredients, we think investors can create an allocation with the potential to overcome new challenges and perform well over the long term.
Want to reduce overall portfolio risk without giving up on income? Consider high-yield bonds.
When we think about how much leverage is being used right now by corporates, I reflect on the old saying: “It’s all fun and games until someone loses an eye.”
If clients have income needs, then it makes most sense today to look at a balanced approach.
In today’s highly uncertain market environment, investors in US stocks are paying a premium for companies with high-dividend yields. But how much is too much—especially if interest rates stop declining? Stocks with resilient high-growth profiles deserve a closer look.
With global markets growing more volatile, we’re often asked what we think are the most underappreciated risks that investors face today. One in particular stands out: currency risk—especially for non-US dollar–based investors.
When it comes to implementing a secure lifetime income solution for a defined contribution (DC) plan, sponsors may balk at the task of evaluating insurers and different types of retirement income options. But fiduciary help is already available, with additional services and innovations on the way.
Trade tensions—and the volatility they bring—are forcing investors to think about new ways to generate low-volatility income. A mortgage income strategy that balances high-quality securities with historically high-returning ones can help.
Washington legislators have crafted some substantive support for defined contribution (DC) plans to offer secure income solutions for participants. The Secure Act, currently under Senate review, may be a key component in clearing away some hurdles that have previously made DC plan sponsors hesitant to incorporate lifetime income solutions.
Plan sponsors evaluating packaged and custom target-date solutions should take a close look at the demographics of their plan participants and how they stack up against those of a “typical” plan. It’s critical information when making a glide-path decision.
Liquidity risk grabbed headlines this summer on the heels of several high-profile fund implosions. The hunt is now on to find ways to manage market liquidity risk and to protect portfolios against liquidity crunches. We’ve pinpointed three essential practices.
Investors recognize that emerging markets are at the core of the global economy and belong in a fixed-income allocation. Still, many investors are underexposed to emerging-market corporate bonds. We think that’s a mistake.
Leading US CEOs recently pledged to redefine the role of the corporation in society. But will they make good on their promises? Responsible investors need a clear way to evaluate whether a company is really making progress by doing good for both society and investors.
It’s been 20 years since a Chinese bank failed. But recent bailouts of three regional lenders have raised concerns about systemic problems in China’s financial sector. While risks have grown for China’s smaller banks, we believe that the Chinese banking system remains robust.
Rejoice—people around the world are living longer! But pause the festivities—that means they need more retirement money. To ensure they don’t run out of cash, savers need to adjust their investment strategies as their needs change, both before and after retiring.
The most closely watched part of the US yield curve inverted this week for this first time since 2007, suggesting that a recession may be around the corner. We’re not convinced that’s true.
Oil and gas producers are often seen as vulnerable to global efforts aimed at curbing climate change. But some European energy groups might become part of the solution to climate change rather than part of the problem.
Sustainable investing is often misunderstood. Many investors think a sustainable agenda limits a portfolio to a narrow piece of the market. In fact, plenty of stocks can help investors create social benefits while generating strong returns—if you know how to find them.
China’s currency depreciated this week, with the exchange rate rising to more than 7.0 renminbi per US dollar, unnerving investors worldwide. Here’s the good news: we don’t think the decline is as worrisome as it may seem.
Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching.
Municipal bonds have had a good run since the beginning of the year, but there’s still room for additional positive performance in 2019. That’s particularly true for investors who choose active strategies with the flexibility to move money around the bond market as conditions evolve.
With the pound sliding to two-year lows, currency markets are signalling a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit. But the fallout from no deal would hurt the rest of Europe, too, and add to downward pressure on euro-area bond yields.
When people talk about Japan, they often do so in the context of ‘lost decades’ and warnings of limited growth opportunities. Nearly one-third of the population is over age 65, inflation is stubbornly low and predictions for future economic growth are not encouraging.
Global markets have taken heart from a truce in the trade war and signs of yet more monetary-policy stimulus. Easy money may well give a short-term lift to asset prices, but longer-term prospects look more challenging, especially for Europe.