Ever since the pandemic – when surging housing demand collided with a decade of underbuilding – housing affordability has become an increasingly important political issue and a larger focus for policymakers.
U.S. headline employment rebounded strongly in March, posting the largest monthly gain since late 2024. The jobs rebound, which was broad-based across industries, was a welcome sign after February’s data showed a sharp decline not usually seen outside of recessions.
Across corporate lending markets, some investments are easier to trade and exit than others – differences that deserve particular attention today.
Systematic equity investing is a way to invest in the stock market using clear rules and data, rather than guesswork or hunches. Instead of trying to pick stocks based on trends or headlines, this approach uses research, data, and technology to systematically identify opportunities across global markets.
Amid geopolitical uncertainty, dispersion across credit markets – rather than a broad risk-off move – has become the dominant investment signal.
In a world of intensified uncertainty and dispersion, investing becomes less about forecasting and more about favoring more liquid, high quality assets that can be resilient across a variety of scenarios.
Proposals to engineer secondary trading in private assets, often championed by vocal critics of public market liquidity, have gained renewed momentum. For some, enhanced tradability is viewed as a remedy to growing unease over the absence of transparent, real‑time valuation signals in private portfolios.
The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady in March at 3.5%–3.75%, a widely expected outcome as policymakers navigated an unusually complex macro backdrop.
The military conflict in Iran and the Middle East is curtailing the global flow of oil and natural gas. This adds notable pressure to energy prices and the near-term inflation outlook, while also raising questions about countries’ reliance on energy imports and their economic resilience.
Concerns about private credit have intensified in recent months. Investors are grappling with questions about weakening credit quality, stale valuations, looser underwriting, redemption risk in certain types of funds, and the impact of AI‑driven disruption.
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday invalidated tariffs that President Donald Trump had imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Most of the administration’s 2025 tariffs will therefore be rolled back, and importers should eventually receive refunds.
In recent editions of Macro Signposts, we’ve emphasized how U.S. policy changes coinciding with the emergence of a new general-purpose technology (AI) may be accelerating adoption and diffusion of that technology – while also driving economic adjustments.
The historic election victory in Japan for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has granted Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi the strongest mandate in the country’s postwar era and raised hopes of a shift toward growth-oriented policy.
Barely a month into 2026, markets have already weathered multiple bouts of rolling, event‑driven volatility. Geopolitical surprises and policy pivots have triggered sharp price moves from the U.S. to Japan to Europe, from sovereign bonds to currencies to mortgages.
President Trump has announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. We believe Warsh will be confirmed by the Senate and serve as an effective, thoughtful Fed chair. He brings intriguing ideas on ways to change and ideally improve how the Fed operates.
Amid a rush of domestic and foreign policy developments that have rattled markets – including the potential for another U.S. government shutdown – the Federal Reserve held steady on U.S. monetary policy.
Last week in our latest Cyclical Outlook, “Compounding Opportunity,” we argued that beneath the economy’s broad resilience lies a stark divergence. U.S. policy pivots combined with the surge in adoption of AI technology have created winners and losers.
Following strong 2025 returns, high quality fixed income continues to offer attractive yields and global diversification at a time of stretched equity valuations and tight credit spreads.
Macro Signposts highlights takeaways from the data analysis conducted by our team of economists and other experts.
Elevated yields, steeper yield curves, and ongoing volatility make core bonds a compelling choice for total return, income, diversification, and downside risk mitigation in today’s markets. Active management is key: Historically, it has helped core bond portfolios outperform passive strategies through a rigorous, diversified approach.
The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut in December, then signaled a more data-dependent path ahead. Barring an economic shock, we probably won’t see another rate cut until the second half of next year.
Marc Seidner, CIO of Non-traditional Strategies, explores opportunities across equities, bonds, credit, and commodities that have the potential to offer investors resilience and diversification.
This technology is moving quickly, with most businesses only in the early stages of understanding its capabilities. Whether and how fast AI can unlock new, transformative, lucrative idea generation or unleash a force in the U.S. economy similar to the “China shock” – the period in the early 2000s when outsourcing shrunk the U.S. manufacturing base and structurally changed the U.S. labor market – is yet to be seen.
Investors have poured into gold – but they may also see compelling benefits from a broad-based commodity allocation.
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has policymakers – and investors – operating without much of the timely official data that usually inform their decisions. This could have a tangible impact on Federal Reserve policy in particular.
China’s ability to sustain fairly robust economic growth despite a massive property sector downturn is now facing new tests as global trade barriers rise, and domestic demand shows fresh signs of weakness.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a widely anticipated 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. With markets priced for this move and the Fed operating in a data vacuum due to the U.S. government shutdown, the rate cut and modest statement changes were largely uneventful.
The recent high-profile bankruptcies and the timing of their collapse are consistent with this changing macro backdrop, although these cases were also allegedly exacerbated by inconsistencies in collateral accounting and pledges.
The balance of risks to the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate (price stability and maximum employment) prompted the central bank to lower its policy rate in September in an effort to bolster the economy and employment.
Locking in attractive bond yields can support long-term returns, especially as central banks cut interest rates and tariff effects pose risk to global economic growth and inflation.
The Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle at the September meeting, lowering its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 4%–4.25%, after being on hold since its previous cut in December. The Fed also signaled a less restrictive stance to come amid mounting labor m
Mortgage bond reinvestment could be the Federal Reserve’s most effective and immediate tool to unlock the housing market – without even touching interest rates.
The rise of private markets has brought new attention to private investment grade (IG) credit, which can offer investors a premium over public IG for giving borrowers customized terms – though that premium comes with certain risks.
The Federal Reserve notes the balance of risks to the U.S. economy may warrant a shift in policy stance – in other words, a rate cut.
Uncertainty remains high, but so are bond yields, leading to attractive opportunities for active investors, in our view.
The degree to which growth in Europe slows, along with inflation developments, will be key in determining the path ahead for the European Central Bank.
Investors enjoyed broad gains across major asset classes in the first half of this year, but they endured considerable market swings to earn those returns.
In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.
In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.
Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida explains where yields may be headed, as well as positioning considerations for the long-run by charting the relationship between r* and term premium.
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in June, as widely expected, but revisions to its economic projections indicate a more uncertain outlook.
New strategies, shifting flows, and innovative technologies are driving a more dynamic and diversified marketplace in fixed income ETFs.
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
Kristofer Kraus, portfolio manager and co-lead of PIMCO’s asset-based finance business, charts the nuances behind the overall resilience of U.S. consumers – and explains how these insights shape lending and investment strategies.
A rushed exit from conservatorship could increase mortgage rates and worsen home affordability.
We maintain a focus on resiliency as elevated yields within high quality fixed income continue to offer attractive opportunities.
Fed officials remain patient, likely awaiting hard evidence of a weaker U.S. labor market before considering rate cuts.
