Over the course of the past year, we published approximately 2,000 investment and economic commentaries from the most prominent and respected asset managers and analysts. Below are the 10 most widely read, starting with the year’s most popular commentary.
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By Ben Inker, John Thorndike of GMO, 1/25/19
In a new quarterly letter to GMO’s clients, head of asset allocation Ben Inker looks back on a confounding 2018 and discusses how to assemble a portfolio of attractive assets looking ahead.
2. Did "Mark-To-Market" Rules Cause The Financial Crisis?
By Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management, 9/18/18
Last Saturday, September 15, 2018, marked the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, which set off the worst US financial crisis since the Great Depression. It was the largest bankruptcy filing in US history, with Lehman holding over $600 billion in assets.
By Byron Wien of Blackstone, 1/3/19
In September, this year looked like it was going to be one of the great years for the Ten Surprises. Oil was at $75 (West Texas Intermediate) and the S&P 500 was at 2,940. The Surprises had oil at $80 and the S&P at 3,000. The Ten Surprises are judged on whether they work out at some point during the year, not where they are at year-end.
4. Magnum opus: Humanity at crossroads
By Wim Grommen of Transfer Solutions, 6/7/17
Every production phase or civilization or other human invention goes through a so called transformation process. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation. In this article I will use one such transition to demonstrate that humanity is at a crossroads: up to a third world war or will humanity create new heaven on earth.
By John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 7/19/19
The storm clouds are gathering. Someone is likely to get hit. It might be you.
By Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch, 6/3/19
For the remainder of 2019, the evidence still leans bullish. That’s not a guarantee. This time could be different because the US is engaged in a seemingly unending trade war with two major trading partners. All the market technicals, sentiment and fundamental data available cannot predict what happens next.
7. Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests “Yes”
By Martin Tarlie of GMO, 1/18/19
GMO's Martin Tarlie argues in a new white paper that the U.S. stock market was a bubble from early 2017 through much of 2018, and that the bubble started to deflate in Q4 2018, despite strong fundamentals.
8. You Are Here
By John Hussman of Hussman Funds, 8/12/19
Probably the most useful exercise we can do at present is to examine where the markets and the U.S. economy are in their respective cycles - with 19 charts and detailed analysis. There’s little question that the market is long into what Rhea described as the final phase of a bull market; “the period when speculation is rampant – a period when stocks are advanced on hopes and expectations.”
9. Ray Dalio Is Kinda, Sorta, Really Wrong
By John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics
Ray Dalio is really, really wrong. He basically endorses Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).
10. Recession Watch (or Distant Early Warning?)
By Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab, 8/12/19
Current economic conditions do not look recessionary, but risks are rising and if we’re heading into one, it’s possible it already started.
