Bond Bulls Bet Fed Is Right in Anticipating Low Rates to Return

Two years after inflation surged, the Federal Reserve has made limited progress tamping it down. A coterie of investors in the bond market is betting not only that policymakers will win, but that they’re right in anticipating the era of low long-term interest rates will return.

Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, is one of them.

“I’d argue the Fed is regaining their inflation credibility, slowly,” he said in a telephone interview. “As they get inflation closer to the target, their long-run rate will again serve as a credible anchor for yields.”

That thinking is visible in consensus projections, which see 10-year yields coming down over time to closer to 3% in 2024 and 2025, versus the current level of around 3.69%, Bloomberg surveys show. The consensus has got it wrong in the past, however — a little over a year ago, forecasters thought 10-year yields would now be below 3%.

As Tannuzzo sees it, there remains for the moment what he calls a “Fed credibility risk premium,” as seen in the gap between 10-year Treasury yields and the central bankers’ estimate of the long-run policy rate.

Gravitational Pull | Long-term yields seen moving down as Fed credibility grows