1. Investors still must take some risk for the potential to earn some return
For some time, we have been advising our clients to take measured risk in their portfolios – and that advice has not changed. With interest rates set to remain lower for longer, investors simply have no choice – even with the markets near record highs. Yet investors certainly have risk on their minds. Our new RiskMonitor 2017 survey shows that geopolitics are the top concern for institutional investors, and two-thirds say active management is essential in this market environment.
2. Philanthropic giving could be the next ESG frontier
ESG (environmental, social and governance) investing is now mainstream and takes many forms – from screening to advocacy to impact investing. The majority of investors use ESG for return potential, and leading pension funds choose companies that exhibit good governance. But new ESG areas are emerging – such as philanthropic giving – that put more emphasis on societal impact. The days of seeing philanthropy and investing as separate things may be over.
3. Look for value in the US market
Long-term US fundamentals look troubling: Productivity growth is down and the labour force is declining, indicating softer growth ahead. So why are stock valuations so stretched? Because equities are the best option for many investors, and because companies are using low-interest loans to buy back shares. As the US Federal Reserve raises rates, stocks may pull back. But if reflationary policies work, value stocks – particularly energy and banking names – may begin to outperform.
4. US energy independence is getting closer
The US shale gas industry has changed the world order for oil: Post-shale, oil prices halved, US consumer energy spending hit multi-decade lows and OPEC lost much of its power. The US is marching toward energy independence, but is the market under the false assumption that shale will grow forever? Traditional energy stocks have come under intense pressure despite strong fundamentals, which may be a good contrarian buying opportunity.
5. No easy fix for the productivity challenge
Productivity is arguably the most significant driver of economic growth, but productivity growth is slowing and shows no sign of turning around. One reason is the demographic “time bomb” of our aging society. To be sure, some new technologies could help, but they have yet to deliver their full transformational value. The key to tackling the productivity challenge is corporate and government leadership that emphasizes innovation, research and development, and long-term thinking.
6. Expect a slow slog for President Trump
Although Mr Trump’s presidency so far has been a rocky one, his administration still has goals to meet – tax reform, in particular. Yet changing the tax code may be a slow process, given the many vested interests at work. As a result, some kind of “tax reform-light” may materialize before 2018’s mid-term elections – which will be a critical moment for the president’s party and a litmus test on his own popularity.
7. US health care needs a cure
Health-care costs represent 16 per cent of US GDP versus around 6 per cent for most other developed countries, and the US is on track to spend 27 per cent by 2028. The quality of care is high for those who can afford it, but costs are rising unsustainably – and the added spend doesn’t always equal improved outcomes. Addressing pharmaceutical spending is one possible solution. Investors in pharma stocks should avoid firms with overlapping products and look for innovative products with proven outcomes.
8. We might be mis-measuring inflation
The Phillips curve – the model that central banks use to measure how increased levels of employment result in higher inflation – may no longer be valid, but the bigger question may be whether inflation is being mis-measured. Do standard measures of consumer price inflation match everyday perceptions of how prices are rising? Are increased rental and commuting costs accurately reflected? Do lower tech prices offset escalating costs elsewhere? Policymakers should be aware of the real-world impacts of inflation amid increasing social divisions and the rise of populism. And investors must remain vigilant about protecting the real purchasing power of their savings from all and any threats of inflation.
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Important Information
The material contains the current opinions of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Forecasts and estimates have certain inherent limitations, and are not intended to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
Past performance of the markets is no guarantee of future results. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is presented only to provide information on investment strategies and opportunities.
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