Recovery Changes Seasons

The pandemic has made indoor activities and gatherings risky. During the summer, outdoor adventures and backyard socializing were effective workarounds. But as autumn takes hold, the cooling air will gradually limit those options.

This summer also brought a series of promising economic reports, with many sectors showing a warming trend. Growth during the third quarter will likely break records, albeit from a low starting point. But the change of seasons also seems to be bringing a cooling trend to economic momentum.

With COVID-19 cases rising again and policy support falling away, the recovery is facing rising risks just a few months after it began. The course of the virus and the policy response to ongoing economic dislocation will continue to determine the course of growth and create uncertainty around the outlook.

Key Economic Indicators

USEO - October 2020 - Chart 1