Northern Trust

The recent global bond sell-off may be more than a temporary repricing. Rising government debt, persistent inflation risks and shifting economic expectations could keep longer-term yields elevated relative to the post-financial-crisis era.

Occasionally, we are confronted with decisions where there are no easy options. The prevailing circumstances bound our choices, and we may face criticism no matter what we do. Collectively, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) finds itself in just such a situation as it prepares for its upcoming meeting.

The Federal Reserve has spent the past four years trying to cool price increases through higher interest rates. The federal funds rate is still well above its pre-pandemic average, mortgage rates remain elevated, and borrowing costs for households and businesses are considerably higher than they were in the era of ultra-low interest rates.

I haven’t always taken the most conventional approach to economics. In a world where many practitioners construct elaborate models to arrive at conclusions, I often find more value in simply following my instincts. During stressful times and paradigm changes, thinking outside of the equations is essential.

Most people experience transportation through roads and airports. Traffic jams on highways and delays at major hubs are familiar frustrations. But the world's most important transportation network lies largely out of sight.

A hard line on trade was a popular plank of the first Trump candidacy. But once in office, his advisors used slow, conventional investigations and negotiations toward the goal of fairer terms of trade.

The term “backfire” originally referred to the intentional burning of underbrush when there is a wildfire on the horizon, to keep a bad situation from turning worse. Over time, however, backfire has come to mean an action that makes a bad situation worse.

When a driver sees an unfamiliar light on the dashboard, the hope is that it’s a false positive that will go away on its own. But a persistent warning must be addressed before it becomes a bigger problem. The global economy is moving forward with several warning lights flashing, and those signals are becoming harder to ignore.

In choppy waters, many novice ship passengers will experience sea sickness. The only sure remedy is to wait it out. Symptoms will pass, as will the rough waters.

To some, the debate over inflation targeting is largely an academic exercise. But its outcome will have direct consequences for the paths of global interest rates and global markets. Some background on how we arrived at this juncture, and where we might go from here, follows.

Outdoor sports and exercise are more difficult at the height of summer. Runners slow their paces, and teams start their practices early to beat the heat. Competitors must marshal their energy carefully to perform at their best.

Governments can print money, but they cannot print credibility. Once investors begin to question a country's fiscal trajectory, borrowing costs rise, confidence erodes, and policy choices become increasingly constrained. The age of cheap debt allowed many governments to overlook these limits. Today, they are becoming harder to escape.

The first step in recovery is recognizing a problem. For decades, some U.S. states have had problems with indebtedness. But as we take stock of state finances today, we see many examples of recovery.

The arrival of the new academic year prompted me to revisit a piece that we wrote in 2023, which detailed the damage that the pandemic had done to young students. In the years immediately following COVID-19, achievement scores skidded, suggesting that online learning was a poor substitute for time in the classroom.

We provide research and advice on asset allocation, the selection and weighting of various investment categories. Subject to internal review and governance, our recommendations guide the investment decisions in our family of mutual funds and institutional client portfolios.

Electricity has become a major global focus. It essential to powering the modern economy: regions with capacity will generate growth, while those without adequate supplies may be vulnerable to shocks.

Forecasting is always fraught, but geopolitical turmoil makes it especially hazardous. Economic projections are only as reliable as the assumptions behind them, and those inputs can change quickly when conflicts are involved.

I am not right as often as I would like. And feeling bad about being right occurs very, very rarely. But now is one of those times. I was not surprised when the ceasefire between the United States and Iran broke down long before it was due to expire.

Election season often follows a familiar script. Investors debate congressional control, speculate on policy outcomes and search for clues about what markets might do next.

The summer has once again brought a miasma of wildfire smoke across wide stretches of the nation, leading to hazy views and slower activity. The clouds in our outlook are not merely atmospheric. A failed ceasefire and renewed conflict in the Middle East have created new reasons to worry about economic performance.

Lock, stock and barrel, a British phrase, originally referred to the three essential components of a firearm. Over time, it evolved into shorthand for the whole package. When tensions flare in the Middle East, the global economy often feels the consequences lock, stock and barrel.

I really struggle to understand my utility bills. They often run to several pages, with sections describing just how difficult it is to get water from the source to your faucet, or internet service from a satellite to your home router. At the end, there is a long list of charges from a range of payors that adds up to an astronomical sum.

The measurement of inflation has been getting a lot of attention lately. Some modifications are underway, with more potentially to follow.

General Douglas MacArthur once remarked that “rules are mostly made to be broken.” He was at odds with U.S. President Harry Truman over the conduct of the Korean War, feeling that the restrictions placed on his forces weren’t supportive of success.

We had a data center at my first banking job. It was a dusty room filled with old Federal Reserve Bulletins, Economic Reports of the Presidents, and annual reports from the International Monetary Fund. I was the search engine, and the operation was powered by caffeine.

Productivity is an essential component of economic success. It allows for growth without inflation; compensates for demographic deficits; and helps nations attract investment.

Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s passing has brought a stream of retrospectives on his approaches to managing the economy. He erred on the side of parsimony, favoring short public statements. Greenspan’s vague communication style offered little clarity over the future path of interest rates.

While the Middle East is still far from calm, it does appear the worst of the volatility in the region is in the past. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is in place, with negotiations underway for a more durable peace.

Circumstances since 2020 have repeatedly demonstrated how adaptable the economy is in the face of new challenges. We see no reason for that resilience to fade in the balance of the year.

The AI boom goes from strength to strength. Big technology companies are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips, data centers and power-hungry infrastructure. One estimate puts annual AI infrastructure investment above $650 billion in 2025 and potentially over $800 billion in 2026..

The ongoing World Cup showcases three countries working together. The USMCA review will reveal whether that cooperation extends beyond sport. A shared platform can continue to deliver strong outcomes, but only if the rules remain clear, stable and broadly accepted.

The announcement of an extended ceasefire in the Middle East is welcome news. The accord, which is scheduled to be signed late this week, reduces a source of geopolitical uncertainty that has hovered over the global economy. But significant risks remain.

At graduation ceremonies, audiences are often reminded to limit their audible reactions and hold applause, so that all graduates’ names can be heard. But a few viral videos this year showed a new disturbance to be managed: graduating students booing speakers if they extolled the virtues of artificial intelligence (AI).

Tariff rates will vary, but their persistence is certain.

Fertilizers sit at the center of this transmission mechanism. As much as a third of the global supply of these commodities passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely been closed for three months. This has triggered shortages and a price spike.

An increasing number of our neighbors are now retired. As they have made that transition, their sensitivity to the costs of living has increased, as has their skepticism over the way that inflation is measured. A common refrain: “I don’t care what the numbers say…things are REALLY expensive these days!”

Economies around the world aren’t just reliant on AI investments for growth. The appreciation of AI stocks has supported spending, which is following “K-shaped” patterns. A significant correction to the valuations of tech leaders would therefore be even more likely to result in recession.

An unexpected rap on your front door is sometimes cause for anxiety. You are not sure who or what is out there, wanting to get in.

Contrary to what legal television series portray, verdicts rarely turn on a single moment of drama. They take shape gradually, as evidence accumulates and a broader narrative comes into focus.

This week marked the passing of former Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank. His signature legislation, the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, was the most recent increment in a long-running history of tighter financial regulation. Some of those rules are now coming under scrutiny, with the goal of making bank lending more competitive.

During the American cigar craze of the 1990s, a couple of my neighbors purchased humidors and began collecting. The holy grail for them was Cuban Cohibas, banned from import by longstanding U.S. sanctions.

Nineteenth-century oil processing plants used simple, column distillation of crude oil to produce kerosene, which was in high demand for lighting lamps. The process also yielded a dangerously flammable byproduct called gasoline which had no obvious use.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed this week as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. As we discussed in a recent article, his transition comes at a delicate time; inflation is rising, and questions about the Fed’s independence are pressing. The honeymoon period will be brief.

The United States has not felt the greatest costs of the Iran conflict, but challenges are becoming visible. Energy prices have risen, with limited prospects for relief. Inflation measures are poised to spread to other product and service categories. Inventories that helped to blunt the impact are depleting; supply chain distortions are accumulating.

Stock markets have been hitting all-time highs and credit spreads remain low, yet higher interest rates and mounting floating-rate debt are straining lower-rated borrowers. This tension is surfacing first in leveraged loans as “quiet defaults” become more common — opening up a dynamic set of opportunities for investors specialized in stressed and distressed assets.

A tariff is a tax on the value of an imported good, paid by the importer at the time the good is taken from an entry port. The tariff is absorbed in some combination of price concessions by the exporter, lower margins for the importer or higher final prices.

With those simple words, Jerome Powell departed his final press conference as Federal Reserve Chair. Powell’s eight years at the helm have been anything but simple, however. A review of his tenure includes some hits, some misses, and some important lessons in leadership.

Artificial intelligence unknowns are creating stress in the market, and we don’t see that ending any time soon. For long-term investors, these stressors can create opportunities.

Students of game theory often start with a lesson in the prisoner’s dilemma: two agents would gain a better collective outcome by cooperating, but each has an individual incentive to take action that is at their partner’s expense.

Automotive enthusiasts have coined the phrase malaise era to describe U.S. vehicles made from roughly 1973 to the early 1980s. New emissions and safety standards, plus high gasoline prices following the 1973 oil crisis, permanently reshaped the market.

Global risks have tilted against both growth and price stability. The ceasefire in the Middle East has brought a measure of calm to financial markets, but it has not resolved the underlying economic shock. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, supply constraints continue to ripple through energy markets and are increasingly spilling over into downstream sectors.

One of the most important decisions anyone will make in their lives is whether, and whom, to marry. A well-chosen partnership can lead to a happy steady state and help to weather downturns. But even the best long term partnerships can have their ups and downs. For currencies that are wedded to the U.S. dollar, the war in Iran has put some stress into their relationships.

The Middle East war has entered a fragile ceasefire, offering tentative relief to energy and financial markets. Oil prices have eased and volatility has subsided, feeding hopes that the worst disruptions may be passing.

Leaders often have trouble focusing on the longer-term. In the corporate arena, pressure to produce quarterly earnings can truncate planning horizons. In public life, popular opinion and election cycles can impose myopia. It takes a unique set of ingredients to set, and stick to, a lasting vision.

Each spring, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its World Economic Outlook (WEO), a review of global growth, and the key challenges confronting the world economy. This year’s edition followed the Fund’s usual structure, but the circumstances underneath it had shifted. ]

Every employee has heard calls to be more efficient: “Work smarter, not harder.” “Do more with less.” “Don't reinvent the wheel.” These platitudes are not only applicable at the micro level: the modern economy has continually become more efficient. Our use of energy tells the story clearly, and serves as a source of resilience during today’s supply disruptions.

I was working in one of our regional offices this week when the network on our floor experienced a brief outage. People were clearly not prepared for a return to an analog world, and grew increasingly anxious as the minutes ticked by.

Over the past several years, those patterns have been changing. The evolving flows of both tourists and emigrees will have important economic effects.

Beyond keeping party balloons aloft, helium plays a far more serious role in the modern economy. Extracted as a by‑product of natural gas production, it is an essential input across semiconductors, medical imaging, aerospace and defense systems.

The middle is typically not where you want to be. In American sports, teams in the middle of the standings aren’t contenders for either a championship or a high draft choice. The middle seat on an airplane, subject to incursions from either side, is not very comfortable. The middle manager is accountable in every direction, empowered in none.

The war in Iran has been costly, in a number of ways. First and foremost, the humanitarian consequences have been substantial: the price paid by those in harm’s way is immeasurable.

During the pandemic, my wife lived in constant fear that we would run short of paper products, disinfectants and other essentials. I was frequently sent out on reconnaissance missions to replenish supplies.

Rationally, no one should feel happy about an income tax refund. The refund is a correction of a tax overpayment; the recipient effectively gave the government an interest-free loan over the course of the prior year.

Sharp moves in energy prices rarely arrive at a convenient moment for policymakers. When shocks occur, governments are left juggling two competing imperatives: cushioning households from rising costs while preserving fiscal credibility. T

The Iran conflict has changed the paths for inflation and central bank actions.

While agricultural best practices have moved on to other resources, the Guano Wars teach us that nations are willing to go to great lengths to sustain their crops.

The ongoing Middle East war has once again underscored oil’s strategic importance. Vital resources warrant buffers against disruptions in the form of a strategic reserve.

“Smoke on the Water, Fire in the Sky,” the iconic Deep Purple refrain, endures because it captures a familiar dynamic: threats appear on the horizon before the heat arrives.

The whole world will feel the consequences of this conflict.

Kitty Hawk, North Carolina is known as the birthplace of aviation. Success did not come overnight. The Wright Brothers spent three years on the Outer Banks experimenting. While they ultimately took flight, the potential downsides of their endeavor were of constant concern.

The opening months of 2026 have been hectic. A partial inventory of major developments during the year to date would include the removal of Venezuela’s leader; a government investigation into the Chairman of the Federal Reserve; tension with Europe over Greenland; and a broad swath of U.S. tariffs stricken down by the Supreme Court. It’s been a lot to digest.

Last week’s Supreme Court ruling has prompted a re-set of U.S. tariff policy. As an updated strategy is being formulated, it is worth assessing whether the effort is worth sustaining. A high level review suggests that American trade policy over the last year has detracted from economic performance, and should be re-thought.

If trade policy were like a boxing match, the U.S. had hoped tariffs would be a decisive, knockout blow. While many of America’s trading partners reeled, they stayed on their feet and are wearing down their opponent.

The year got off to a cold start in the U.S., with many regions experiencing unusually freezing temperatures and precipitation. February has brought relief in both the weather and in economic reports.

Routine physical checkups are an important component of healthcare. A doctor can identify potential problems and coach the patient toward making healthier choices.

The U.S. economy is all in on artificial intelligence (AI). But there are some natural limitations to progress which will have to be carefully managed.

With growth in both economies underpinned by trade, neither side has much appetite for a large‑scale economic confrontation. That reality should push both capitals toward calibrated responses rather than actions that sharply raise the costs of retaliation.

Browsing real-estate listings is a popular hobby. Home data portals provide hours of free entertainment. Some listings feature bizarre or ostentatious decoration; some are time capsules, preserving a bygone era. Most entries share one shocking feature: the price.

A financial innovation brings new insights and new risks.

After more than two decades of talks, the EU has reached a free trade deal with Mercosur, the South American common market that includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. More recently, Europe concluded an agreement with India, an accord nearly twenty years in the making.

Prices in efficient markets will rapidly adjust to reflect new risks and developments. The year has started with a flurry of geopolitical events, which have created significant volatility in the markets for currencies and commodities.

At the start of my career, the Federal Reserve was content to operate in the shadows. Today, by contrast, the Fed is a much more public entity. And so the fact that the derby to become the next Chairman played out so vividly in the media was not surprising.

Affordability and the cost of living have become frequent topics of conversation. Costs rose, but incomes did not immediately keep pace. The rate of inflation has moderated, but consumers remain sensitive to high prices, worried they are falling behind.

Climatically, Europe has been fortunate: its winter has been moderate so far. But Europe’s need for fuel remains substantial, and the cooling of relations between the U.S. and the European Union (EU) may make it more difficult to keep EU homes and the EU economy warm.

Municipal credit remains strong in 2026 with high reserves and sector resilience. Still, policy changes and economic pressures ahead warrant attention.

A sharp productivity jump shows firms doing more with fewer workers. But the upside surprise also highlights growing risks about how these gains affect the workforce.

New 25% tariffs will be placed on a small set of advanced semiconductors. The list of exemptions was long, allowing free imports of chips bound for data centers, research, startups and the public sector. The new tariff does not apply to finished products that use these chips, like laptops and smartphones.

What appeared just months ago to be a stable and predictable transatlantic trade environment now looks conditional. The ground underneath transatlantic trade relations is once again shifting…even though critical portions of it are covered by permafrost.

Classical economics suggests that information is readily available, and is assimilated quickly and accurately. Reality is not that neat: the discipline of behavioral economics has consistently demonstrated that human beings are prone to a series of biases and miscalculations.

Long trips rarely end at the airport. We arrive, but our internal clocks lag behind; the first day back is spent acclimating to the new landscape. The global economy enters 2026 in much the same way. Shifting rules of commerce, political stoppages and patchy data have left decision makers disoriented.

Greenland has reemerged as a center of geopolitical attention. Its location midway between Washington and Moscow, combined with its position along maritime routes linking the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, has long made it a focal point for trade.

We are in the midst of a tech-led investment boom supporting what some think is a transformational technology. The annualized pace of U.S. productivity growth was 5% in the third quarter of last year, well above the long-term average.

Taking time away due to illness is never ideal. Upon return to school or work, we are greeted with all the tasks we did not complete while incapacitated. The recovery may feel worse than the disease.

Defaults among auto loans are noteworthy because these had been seen as a safe form of lending. Living without a car is impossible in much of the United States; in the GFC, borrowers were more likely to surrender their home than their car.

Mao Zedong once warned that power grows out of the barrel of a gun. In recent decades, global institutions and markets that make kinetic interventions less common. But when those mechanisms fail, power will fill the void.

We just closed another banner year for asset prices. The S&P 500 was up 16% in 2025, and many overseas exchanges saw gains of more than 25%. Bond prices rose, and most housing markets held onto high values. There were even some signs of recovery in commercial real estate.

From an investment perspective, the financial ramifications operate on two levels — direct and indirect effects. The most direct effect is visible in the distressed debt market. Bonds issued by PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-run oil company, remain in technical default but had already begun a sharp rally in mid-December. Investors, anticipating an increased likelihood of regime change, have now seen that thesis validated.

We examine what’s driving gold’s ascent — from central bank reserves to portfolio hedging — and why it can play a strategic role for investors.

Reflections on the unexpected outcomes of an unpredictable year.

This year has witnessed some of the most significant policy shifts in recent memory. Economic, strategic and fiscal norms have all been challenged, creating a level of uncertainty that has been hard keep up with.

U.S. consumers are seeing a tangible rise in their monthly utility bills, with the average residential cost increasing to $142 in 2024, double the general inflation rate.

With great power comes great responsibility. But in the age of artificial intelligence (AI), power means megawatts, not metaphors.

The rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence (AI), while promising increased productivity, is creating a significant and often overlooked strain on the global power grid.

Equity markets reached new record highs over the past month, reigniting debate over whether we’re in bubble territory. Heightened U.S. equity valuations and concentrated market leadership fuel this concern — but context matters. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and short-term pullbacks, while uncomfortable, are a normal part of the cycle.

The trade dispute with the U.S. is proving to be a 'full-blown blizzard' for Canada, threatening to freeze cross-border commerce in a deeply integrated relationship. Despite the majority of goods remaining duty-free, new tariffs—reaching 35% in key sectors—have caused a sharp decline in Canadian exports, pushing the nation toward recession.

This article reviews historical and contemporary attempts by world leaders—from Nixon's price controls to European energy subsidies—to contain costs, ultimately illustrating the limits of policy intervention in combating inflation. While some measures provided temporary relief, the persistent challenge of high prices remains a central political concern.

We enter 2026 after a year of robust global stock gains on AI optimism, falling interest rates and a resilient world economy. Beneath this stability, however, lies a more fragile environment.

In times of uncertainty — whether in sport or in markets — the ability to separate fact from feeling — or ideology — is critical. This principle applies across leadership, investing and even today’s AI-driven economy.

We examine valuations in historical context, how today’s market compare to the tech bubble of the 1990s and what’s driving stock gains now.

Closing the books on fiscal year 2025, the U.S. ran a deficit of $1.77 trillion, a slight improvement from $1.83 trillion in 2024. But a peacetime deficit exceeding 6% of gross domestic product (GDP) is still cause for worry.

Capital controls can be used to keep investors at home. Bank reserve and liquidity requirements can also be employed for this purpose: U.S. banks hold $2 trillion more in government debt than they did six years ago.

The prime-age labor force participation rate of 84.6% in January 1999 is still a record high. But the pace of hiring distinguishes the two eras. In the 1990s, anyone with marginal tech skills could readily find work. Information sector employment grew over 27% from 1995 to 2000, while total nonfarm employment gained 12%.

Looking back to the 1990s need not be just a matter of nostalgia. Those too young to have lived it envy the fortunes made as technology firms grew. Seasoned investors who worked through the cycle can warn us of the pain of a correction. Along the way, the cycle taught useful lessons.

Sports wagering has come a long way since then. Global revenue derived from this activity now exceeds $100 billion, and is expected to grow exponentially in the years ahead.

2025 has not been just a story of U.S. resilience. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region has weathered storms and stayed firmly on course.

Before we started some recent home renovations, neighbors offered advice: stay patient. Construction projects feature weeks that feel like no progress has been made, and days that feel like everything has changed at once.

Every innovation follows a lifecycle, from breakthrough to ubiquity to obsolescence. The Edison bulb once lit up the world, transforming how we lived and worked. But it was ultimately replaced by more efficient and sustainable alternatives.

The U.S. government shutdown is about to enter its second month. We did not rush to comment on it, because we didn’t think that it would have much of an economic impact. But the risk that lasting damage will be done is rising.

While many lessons have evolved over time, one maxim has never changed for children: look both ways before crossing the street. I reinforced with my children to then look again. We might not see everything on a quick glance, and traffic can change quickly.

Two weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued an updated World Economic Outlook. In it, the IMF edged up its global growth forecast for 2025, suggesting that U.S. tariffs haven’t turned out to be as damaging as the Fund anticipated in April.

These shifts are not signs of stress; shortfalls have been minor, and relief systems are working as intended. However, we can be certain the era of excess liquidity has ended. Fed speakers have characterized the pandemic-stimulated economy as one of “abundant reserves,” with bank reserves elevated beyond their natural level.

Global equity markets have surged this year, in spite of moderate economic growth and an accumulating series of risks. This has led some to worry that valuations have been stretched a little too far. The same can be said of credit markets, which have seen spreads fall to levels last seen in 2007.

U.S.-China frictions continue, highlighting that greater volatility is likely not a bug of the current trade stand-off but a feature of the emerging geopolitical landscape.

Not all low volatility strategies are created equal. The goal may be simple — smoother returns with less risk — but execution determines success. Portfolios built only on historical volatility can leave investors vulnerable.

After an extended period of surprisingly resilient economic activity, marked by buoyant consumer spending and robust labor market gains, the U.S. economy is shifting gears. The sprint phase, characterized by fiscal tailwinds and pent-up demand, is giving way to a more measured pace.

Broad measures of the U.S. economy are strong. Stock market indices have set new record highs this year.

In high-stakes negotiations, there are usually a series of threats and retreats before the final handshake. Each side uses bargaining chips to shape the outcome of the discussions. But bargaining chips don’t always lead to bargains.

So while there is a lot of focus on drug prices, measures taken to date are unlikely to make a meaningful impact on costs paid by the U.S. and its citizens. More fundamental reform would likely take an act of Congress, which would be hotly contested by lobbyists. There is no end in sight for debate on this front.

We examine the broader implications of China’s threat to expand restrictions on rare-earth exports.

Argentina's latest lifeline does not address the nation's structural issues.

The GENIUS Act shows the way forward for payment stablecoins.

With the U.S. government shut down, the Labor Department was unable to release the monthly employment report on October 3. You could almost sense the economics community experiencing a kind of withdrawal, not sure of how to cope with the deprivation of data.

Private equity secondaries transactions likely will surge to a record in 2025. Learn what’s driving institutional investors to use them.

Labor markets are not keeping pace with young adult populations.

The office real estate sector is working through a difficult cycle.

Powering intelligence: the molecules, metals, and markets behind AI.

How the shutdown may impact the Federal Reserve, the economy, stocks and bond yields.

Central banks are walking a tightrope, carefully fine-tuning their next moves as they face lingering inflation and subdued growth.

Oil prices are notoriously difficult to forecast. Production can be volatile, and the global oil supply chain is complex.

Back in the day, the arrival of the postman was a big deal. E-mail and texting existed only in the dreams of technologists, so people communicated with one another by writing letters.

Investors are increasingly confident that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates several times through mid-2026, signaling a more aggressive easing cycle.

Clearer policy and lower rates are favorable for growth.

Healthcare costs will be a chronic pain.

France, Britain, and the Fight for Fiscal Credibility

China continues to struggle with deflation. Producer prices have been falling for more than two years, and consumer prices have been essentially flat over that time.

The Fed lowered rates by a quarter of a percentage point (0.25%) at its September meeting, citing increased risks to employment; Powell emphasized ongoing inflation and a divided Committee, with future moves dependent on incoming data.

Cuts are in store, but decisions will be weighed carefully.

Today, volatility isn’t a blip on your radar; it’s the landscape. The question isn’t if, but when the next market shaking event will hit your portfolio. So, are you equipped—or exposed?

Gold, digital gold (blockchain-backed gold), and critical minerals are drawing interest as money supply grows and certain resources become scarcer.

The U.S. economy has thus far avoided recession, yet growth has decelerated and economic risks persist.

Independent central banks are a relatively recent concept.

Relations across the English Channel have stabilized.

Powell’s speech seemed to give an all-clear signal for a cut in September. The speech started with a focus on the softening labor market, concluding it is in a “curious kind of balance” with rising risks of layoffs.

Radical policy changes can launch new economic eras.

The year to date has been complicated by a cloud of uncertainty as a new U.S. administration took the world economy by storm.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole shifts the outlook for interest rates.

China’s economy has propagated itself through branches like trade, finance and infrastructure. But supply chains are where its roots have thickened into trunks, particularly across Southeast Asia.

Few have accomplished as much as Janet Yellen during the course of their careers. She broke two significant glass ceilings, becoming the first woman to serve as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and as U.S. Treasury secretary.

AI’s long-term potential remains strong, but supply chain risks and uneven adoption may impact near-term gains.

Resilient data continues to fuel market momentum, but policy risks and global fragility remain close behind.

Switzerland lacks leverage to challenge punitive tariffs.

Limited price collection will complicate estimates of inflation.

Younger workers are facing difficult employment prospects.

The U.S. economy is like a finely tuned sports car—powerful, tough, and built for speed. It has managed to climb steep inclines in recent years, competently maneuvering past multiple roadblocks.

A cooler labor market was long in the making.

Trade deals demonstrate that tariffs are here to stay.

A sharp shift in Fed expectations may trigger bond-market volatility while concerns about the economy may impact equities.

U.S. trade strategy is a top worry among economists.

An ambitious policy yielded great gains and high debts.

Trade negotiations will reveal a nation's favored sectors.

Constant threats are souring U.S. relations with its trading partners. Stop-gap deals of the kind agreed recently will not mark the end of the trade war, as the pacts leave high tariffs in place.

The Marriner Eccles Building, home to the Federal Reserve Board, is an imposing structure that fronts the National Mall in Washington D.C. It was constructed in the wake of the Banking Act of 1935, which created clear separation between the Treasury Department and the central bank.

Trade-dependent Asia-Pacific (APAC) economies are at great risk from the U.S. reciprocal tariff plan. After a three-month deferral, a new series of letters from the White House suggests that the levies will go into force on August 1.

Trade tensions spread to the copper and pharmaceutical markets.

Ignoring U.S. healthcare problems won't make them go away.

U.S. trade policy movements are starting to resemble a soap opera. Following a series of threats, escalations and suspensions, President Trump has extended the tariff deadline to August 1.

Everything that our team publishes has been through peer review. We candidly call out every opportunity we see to improve each other’s writing, from quibbling over word choices to challenging an essay’s entire premise.

The right level of regulation requires careful calibration.

Uncertainty has not impaired overall economic performance.

Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.

An economy cannot subsist on services alone.

Only a subset of subsidies will be rolled back.

Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.

NATO's new spending pledge eases security concerns but adds to fiscal pressures.

The Fed left rates unchanged and signaled it’s still in wait-and-see mode, even as inflation risks and policy uncertainty persist.

OBBBA sets a path for more borrowing ahead.

Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries remains intact.

The current round of budget discussions in Washington will have a significant impact on America’s fiscal trajectory decades into the future. A key underpinning of this year’s debate has roots that go decades into the past.

The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.

The draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) runs more than 1,000 pages. Analysis of the legislation has focused primarily on its impact on the U.S. federal deficit: the Congressional Budget Office estimates that passage would add almost $3 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade.

To anyone going through a breakup, just remember this lyric from Bernadette Peters: “If I’m patient the break will mend and one fine morning the hurt will end.”

I spent the last two weeks of May catching up with partners and clients in Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Hong Kong. Following are some reflections on those conversations.

U.S.-Europe negotiations involve more than just tariffs.

The strengths of the U.S. economy are likely to endure.

An "end-to-end" approach in process management means handling a task or product from its initial planning stages to the finishing point or delivery, without relying on intermediaries for specific steps. No nation does this better than China.

Some of the most useful financial advice has a homespun tone, like to make hay while the sun is shining or save up for a rainy day. I recently encountered another helpful idea in that vein: Think of your house like a family member who is always sick.

Few leading men of the 1960s and 1970s were more dashing than Clint Eastwood. He played a series of gritty heroes, trying to do right in a world gone wrong.

A KEY PLANK of the new administration’s economic policy has been to embrace tariffs, a sharp reversal of decades of free market trade.

Markets rallied after a surprise tariff rollback, but with valuations stretched and policy signals still mixed, investors appear to be leaning toward flexibility, fundamentals, and selective exposure.

Trade pacts with America will not mean a return to the old normal.

In the aftermath of the 2018 trade skirmishes with China and the pandemic, nearshoring and friendshoring quickly became buzzwords. But like many other catch phrases, these two may soon fade from usage and memory.

Debt collectors have been unpopular since ancient times, but they play a necessary role in the lending lifecycle. Their jobs are not easy: I recall one collector noting that there are few ways to communicate with defaulted borrowers.

The signal of announcing trade pacts is an important start.

China has been a focal point of American trade policy for many years, but tensions were escalated early in the second Trump term.

The U.S. may not walk back all of the new tariffs.

Tariff talk has been at a fever pitch for the past three months. Its dominance of the news cycle has crowded out discussion of other important economic issues, such as the sustainability of America’s national debt.

At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.

Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.

In recent times, central bank independence has been taken as gospel. Political pressure for easy money contributed to extremes of inflation in the 1970s.

For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.

Many American consumers recently endured their first inflationary cycle, and recent trade headlines have elevated fears of a another bout with higher costs. While not impacted by tariffs, energy markets may play a critical role in driving the price level during the balance of this year.

After the U.S. imposed substantial tariffs on China, Beijing responded with tariffs of its own and with restrictions on exports of seven rare earth minerals. The latter action will be a particular hindrance to American manufacturers.

American leaders are now engaged in an effort to reverse the loss of manufacturing. The hope is to restore a path to prosperity for struggling regions and their residents. Tariffs are being employed liberally as a means to this end.

Unexpected wider and larger-scope tariff announcements have sent tremors through bond and equity markets, resulting in a brisk sell-off that signals investors’ caution.

Asia-Pacific will likely be the hardest hit region from a steep increase in U.S. tariffs.

President Trump has been a vocal admirer of China’s Great Wall, built by the country’s emperors to protect their territory from outside aggression. In his first term, he compared his plan to build a border wall with that historic structure.

To say that it has been a tumultuous year in Canada would be an understatement. The country’s business model, which relies heavily on commerce with the United States, has been put under severe stress by the American administration.

A divide has recently developed between soft and hard economic data. At a time when conditions are changing rapidly, understanding the difference between the two is terribly important.

The deferral of “reciprocal” tariffs on most U.S. trading partners suggests that the peak of tariff uncertainty may have passed.

Measures announced so far this year have pushed the effective U.S. tariff rate above 20%. The astonishing jump has raised import taxes to a level not seen in about a century.

The reciprocal reprieve does not alter the tectonic shift in the trade outlook.

With uncertainty in abundance, we think investors should avoid drastic moves.

We’re adjusting our stance in response to rising risk while maintaining a disciplined view on long-term strategy.

We reexamine our macroeconomic outlook in light of newly announced tariffs, which have exceeded market expectations and prompted us to update our assumptions and analysis.

The 10% across-the-board (ad valorem) tariff and specific reciprocal tariffs on most U.S. trading partners went well beyond what most were expecting.

We examine the April 2 tariff announcement from President Trump, outlining key proposals and the potential implications for trade and market sentiment.

The last time the dollar needed policy intervention was in 1985. The dollar was ascendant, and that put American exports at a disadvantage.

We call upon an expert for the latest on foreign exchange markets.

The substantial shift in U.S. trade policy will put a significant dent in growth in major markets.

We’ve written quite a bit on tariffs already this year, and appropriately so. Developments on this front have been significant and are of global consequence.

The canal is a vital and valuable trade route.

The time is right to let the Fed's balance sheet level off.

As policy uncertainty grows, we consider how tariffs and other government actions might impact inflation, interest rates, and market sentiment.

Whenever political questions arise, we always encourage a broader view: politicians don’t control the economy, and policy changes rarely move markets. But the past month has raised serious questions over that assertion.

When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.

Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.

Policies to support mainstream crypto adoption are underway.

When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.

Germany is newly motivated to reconsider its fiscal restraint.

Short-term deadlines will complicate long-run plans.

Trade policy clarity is a long way off.

Many ASEAN members punch above their economic weight in international trade. But their power may also make them targets in the mounting global trade battle.

Differing sales tax regimes can appear unfair.

Eggs add to perceptions of high inflation.

Looming U.S. and global policy shifts may potentially rattle markets, but a tactical and flexible approach could help investors navigate risks and opportunities regardless of how events play out.

An aggressive U.S. tariff regime will come down hard on major economies.

The economy can grow through policy changes.

The greatest benefits of TCJA were deep in its details.

At this time of year, those of us who live in the Northern hemisphere are looking forward to a change of season. Statistically, every February week in Chicago should see the daily high temperature rise by 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit, but conditions can vary significantly from expectations.

Chief Investment Officer of Global Asset Allocation, Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., outlines the investment themes and return expectations from our new 10-year outlook.

Europe has real risks and real bargaining tools in a trade confrontation.

U.S. dependence on metal imports could prove costly.

An escalation seems more likely than diffusion in the U.S.-China trade battle.

Our research shows how artificial intelligence can potentially enhance performance of equity investing.

Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.

We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.

The costs and revenue of U.S. tariffs are being blunted by evasion.

Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.

China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.

The market for washing machines offers lessons for future trade actions.

Tax and spending cuts will face Congressional roadblocks.

We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key APAC markets.

We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.

From the start of December to their recent peaks, 10-year yields have gained 68 basis points in the U.K., 60 basis points in the U.S., 55 basis points in Germany and 48 basis points in Canada.

Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.

Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.

Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.

We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.

When and how will new policies take shape?

To clear our notebooks entering 2025, here are quick perspectives on a range of topics.

We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.

We look back on six themes that defined another eventful year.

We believe that there are several guardrails in place that considerably limit the extent of presidential influence over monetary policy decisions.

As the year comes to a busy conclusion, we’re still catching up with news that didn’t make the front page. In the first week of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published a data release that’s even less frequent than the four year presidential election cycle.

Last weekend, the Cathedral of Notre Dame reopened after being severely damaged in a fire five years ago. It took thousands of craftsmen and a reported €840 million to restore the iconic structure.

International commerce often follows the simple rule: one nation’s loss can result in another’s gain. China’s loss from escalating trade tensions with the U.S. is generating gains for several Asian economies, but India is not one of them.

How a diversified liquidity strategy might help time-strapped corporate treasurers reduce vulnerabilities and improve adaptability in uncertain markets while maintaining access to cash.

We expect high yield bond issuers to maintain healthy balance sheets and defaults to remain low.

We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.

We are prone to animal analogies when describing disorderly situations: like herding cats, like a barrel full of monkeys, like a dog’s breakfast.

Not everyone is ready to give thanks for moderating food prices.

New ideas are never as easy as they sound in campaigns.

Sticky underlying price pressures could prevent a faster return to neutral monetary policy.

Lost in the excitement of election week was a meeting of the Federal Reserve. At its conclusion, interest rates were lowered by another quarter-point. But where they are heading from here is a matter of increasing uncertainty.

In sport, play is limited by time or innings. Lineups are set, rules are fixed and boundaries are defined. Winners are determined objectively.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.

The people have spoken. While there are still some unknowns, the contours of the American government that will be seated next January are reasonably clear.

Western economies are inching towards soft landings, and their central banks are reducing interest rates. These developments will be helpful to economies in the Asia-Pacific region as they conclude 2024 and look forward to next year. However, the outlook for China remains a central concern.

The election is unlikely to influence monetary policy.

Enthusiasm for structural reforms is only going to wane.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.

Our analysis explores how potential post-election tax policy changes might impact dividends, capital gains, and municipal bonds and how investors might prepare for different election outcomes.

Equities continued to climb in Q3, with fixed income remaining steady despite international conflicts, inflationary pressure, and election-related uncertainty in the United States.

State and municipal budgets are adjusting to life after pandemic interventions.

An independent central bank supports better economic and market outcomes.

With the election looming, investors should prepare for potential changes in tax policies, particularly given the impending sunset of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

The regulatory outlook is a question of direction more than extent.

Global oil markets are working through many disruptions.

Energy policy decisions today will have long-lasting implications.

Asia-Pacific economies will benefit from soft landings and easier monetary conditions.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.

New business formations have held up, but closures are also rising.

The election could alter the thriving relations between the U.S. and Europe.

The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.

The latest S&P 500 rebalance introduced Dell and Palantir to the index, and Apple’s weight grew with annual float changes, signaling technology’s ongoing influence.

Our research shows that on average U.S. stocks performed well a year after the start of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle.

Tougher stances on trade are a point of bipartisan agreement.

Sports fans know that a lot can change in the fourth quarter of a game. So too for the U.S. economy, as a substantial labor action commenced the minute that calendars turned to the fourth quarter of 2024.

Policymakers have recognized China's slower economy.

Our experts explore the implications of wider S&P 500 earnings growth, potential Fed rate cuts, and the outlook for global equities and bonds amidst ongoing economic shifts.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.

Tax cuts are popular but not affordable for most nations.

The next president will face a difficult fiscal context.

Fiscal responsibility is not a priority in this election.

Since mid-2022, when the Federal Reserve was in the midst of its aggressive hiking cycle, investors piled over $1.6 trillion into money market funds, which include Treasury bills.

The Northern Trust Economics team reacts to the Fed's decision and shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment and inflation.

MSCI boosted India’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and reduced China’s in its latest quarterly rebalance, continuing long-term trends.

With attractive valuations, emerging market equities look like a good opportunity. A factor investing strategy, designed well, may enhance performance and help manage some key risks.

How rapidly should the Fed cut rates?

States enter fiscal 2025 maintaining stable reserves and moderating fixed costs, yet we expect many will need to make modest spending cuts due to exhaustion of federal pandemic aid.

Passive fixed income index investing has evolved significantly over the previous decade, offering investors the flexibility to align risk requirements and investment goals. Learn more from our experts.

Labor shortfalls will become the norm in advanced economies.

The next U.S. president will face immediate fiscal challenges.

The BRICS Pay initiative aims to better integrate currencies for trade and facilitate cross-border transactions among its members.

We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.

Money can still be a factor in inflation.

A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.

The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.

While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.

We analyze Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the potential for rate cuts in September and beyond.

A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.

The 19th Century American author Mark Twain once said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”

That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.

We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.

Last week, we explored the old economic rules that falsely predicted an imminent recession. Losing those guideposts has complicated our efforts to craft an outlook.

Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.

The tea trade has lessons for today’s global commerce.

Previously reliable recession signals have not worked in this cycle.

The Bank of Japan needs to proceed cautiously.

Slower employment cements the case for the Fed to start a series of rate cuts.

North American trade is booming, but gains have been uneven.

The strong currency is neither a blessing nor a curse.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.

Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.

I chaired an international economics conference in Canada earlier this month. Delegates from all over the world attended to discuss the issues of the day. Following is an abridged version of the meeting summary that I offered during the closing session.

Western demand and monetary policy are having an important impact on economic prospects for the Asia-Pacific region.

Slower spending is a part of the return to normal economic conditions.

Metals from Mexico may have a much further point of origin.

Analysts periodically construct elegant algorithms that produce interesting conclusions, only to learn that the underlying information is flawed.

The Federal Reserve is in the pilot’s seat as the American economy approaches a soft landing. The runway is in sight, but some careful maneuvering will still be needed.

The initiation of the excessive deficit procedure will hinder European unity.

History suggests that it is better to embrace progress than hinder it.

Explore the complexities of the high-yield market through comprehensive insights from our experts.

The addition of Dell Technologies and Super Micro boosted the weighting to the technology sector. We also analyze changes to the value and growth indexes.

Tariffs do more harm than good to nations that impose them.

Rebalancing events help ensure benchmarks maintain exposure to companies within their targeted asset class or markets, but the rebalancing can also impact investment portfolios.

We review the key themes of the first half of a busy year.

Initial rate cuts by the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada may signal a transformative trend toward monetary easing.

Adapting to the new cycles requires swift operational changes, making the guidance of experienced managers crucial.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on the eurozone.

Chief U.S. Economist Ryan Boyle explains why measures of inflation don't match feelings about prices.

Higher education is one among many paths to success.

The allure of China as a global manufacturing hub is unlikely to fade anytime soon.

Lower inflation does not mean lower prices.

The health of the British economy is top of mind for voters in this election.

An array of data sources show a labor market that still has plenty of strength.

Mining brings economic benefit and environmental costs.

High-yield credit is experiencing strong inflows and investor confidence, potentially offering attractive returns and reduced volatility compared to other risk assets.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Despite a seemingly Hawkish stance, a closer look suggests the Fed’s conservative inflation estimates could lead to more rate cuts than anticipated.

Mexico has momentum to meet demands from reshoring.

European disinflation allowed for a first cut, but the pace from here will be gradual.

I will never forget the first auction I witnessed. It took place during one of the many summers that I spent on a farm. The auctioneer talked exceedingly quickly, but those in the crowd seemed to understand everything he said.

European value stocks offer a compelling case for short- and long-term investment opportunities, supported by strong fundamentals, attractive valuations, and favorable market conditions.

Summer hiring promises more than just monetary rewards for teens.

This year's venture to Asia was informative and delicious.

Investors are reconsidering long-term capital commitments.

Home equity lending does not require policy support.

Lower interest rates in Europe will favor spending over saving.

New tariffs will renew trade tensions.

European value stocks offer a compelling case for short- and long-term investment opportunities, supported by strong fundamentals, attractive valuations, and favorable market conditions.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation and interest rates in major markets.

The price gap between eating out and cooking at home is rising.

However we measure inflation, we see an incomplete recovery.

Will the rapid growth of private credit impair financial stability?

We explore how stabilization and growth of global markets may potentially shift preferences toward equities relative to bonds.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Sanctions have not been as powerful as expected.

Skepticism is warranted when inflation stories exclude bad news.

AI adoption will dent the fight against climate change.

Hong Kong's prospects are closely linked to the outlook for China.

The FOMC has enough factors to consider without adding politics to the mix.

The stronger U.S. dollar is benefiting America, but creating troubles in other geographies.

There are attractive investment opportunities in private credit against a backdrop of a U.S. economy that continues to outpace the eurozone and the U.K.

We saw a dovish slant to Powell’s remarks at yesterday’s press conference, with no rate hikes in sight.

For investors considering adding small-cap stocks to their equity portfolios, we suggest they do it selectively, steering clear of more speculative investments.

Having played sports my whole life, there is hardly an outdoor activity which I haven’t tried. I have been known to skip irksome social gatherings just to get out on to the fields.

Government economic intervention has persisted since the pandemic.

Financial stability is much improved since last year's stress.

Amid economic challenges, increased dispersion in high yield bonds suggests opportunities for selective investment choices versus broad sector-based strategies.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation and interest rates in major markets.

Demand for copper is on the rise. Can its supply keep pace?

Debt distress is rising fast, but restructuring is becoming more complex.

Dr. Bernanke found significant shortcomings in the BoE's forecasting.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key APAC markets.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

The Chinese yuan is softening in line with the nation's economic outlook.

We had expected the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in June. But as more of our audiences asked why, we saw the case was not strong. This week’s inflation reading seals the deal: we now expect the easing cycle to start in September.

We’ve covered some of the issues related to America’s fiscal crisis in recent months.

Analysis of Q1 2024’s equity market reveals the stage is likely set for a favorable equities market for the remainder of 2024.

Water raises the risks of conflict, civil unrest and economic pain in many parts of the world.

Immigration is coming up everywhere, including economic data.

Daniel Kahneman will be missed. But his work on behavioral economics will forever be with us.

Evidence of overstretched households is emerging, which could threaten the soft landing scenario.

Negative interest rates have more cons than clear pros.

We need a much more conservative approach to projecting budget outcomes.

The negative rate experiment has ended. What comes next?

Cautious investment is holding back the outlook for European nations.

More charging stations and lower prices can break EV sales out of their slump.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on China.

Shelter costs are keeping inflation measures elevated.

Europe needs to boost defense spending while managing stretched fiscal positions.

Corporate taxes illustrate the complexity of global policy coordination.

Climate risks and regulations are on the rise.

Food prices are dragging down feelings about the economy.

The World Trade Organization is struggling to settle international tensions.

Japan's prolonged downturn has lessons for other nations at inflection points.

European nations still have a long energy transition ahead.

Consumers are less willing to spend freely.

The current housing shortage has been long in the making.

Immigration is a vital source of economic growth.

One of the pleasant surprises of 2023 was how quickly inflation decelerated in major economies. Most of the good news came from falling goods prices.

The challenges in banks' portfolios will work out over time.

When consumers fall behind, the credit card bill goes unpaid.

Over the past two years, we have had to revise a lot of numbers upward: the Fed hiked rates more than we expected, inflation has been sticky and growth has far exceeded expectations.

As the U.S economy continues to expand at a nice rate of speed, the eurozone is stuck in a pitstop. Though the common currency region was able to avoid a technical recession last year, preliminary estimates show that activity stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is often considered the most important indicator of the health of an economy. But there are other measures that provide different perspectives, which can be more timely and impartial. The level of equity markets is one such indicator that provides a window into what’s going on.

Small businesses are a vital part of the American economy. The U.S. Small Business Administration estimates that they represent over 46% of employment and account for the majority of new job creation. Small business openings are an expression of optimism in an entrepreneur’s ability and support from their community.

Saving rates rose immensely across economies during the pandemic period. Government support programs, many designed to stimulate demand, elevated household incomes.

Can inflation continue to decline, and what will drive it down?

This week saw the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. Top researchers join public and private sector leaders to explore the issues facing the world. Every year features an outlook for key risks; this year, the risks felt less hypothetical than they might have in calmer times.

There are about 44 million American men between the ages of 25 and 44, a time of life which is traditionally associated with high rates of employment. Yet members of this cohort are much less likely to be working than they were 20 years ago.

The Fed’s balance sheet could stabilize this year, but details are unclear.

The likelihood of another severe bout of inflation from higher shipping costs alone is low.

The higher level of U.S. oil production is helping to keep global prices contained.

EU nations have compromised on paths toward fiscal balance.

Progress on a 2024 U.S. federal budget has been limited.

The promise of GLP-1 drugs goes far beyond individual weight loss.

The economics team shares a few things that have been on our minds.

The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2023.

The ECB will pivot in 2024, but probably not as early or swiftly as markets predict.

The secular forces that held down rates for forty years have not entirely changed.

American consumers are becoming more frugal this holiday season.

Both supply and demand of workers will prevent a surge in unemployment rates.

The Canadian economy is buckling under the weight of higher interest rates, household debt and immigration.

Food prices illustrate several challenges of containing inflation.

Both supply and demand of workers will prevent a surge in unemployment rates.

The potency of monetary policy will weigh more heavily on activity in 2024.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Companies are rethinking office space.

Housing markets are cooling but unlikely to end in a bust.

Financial flows have shifted this year. In the credit arena, bank lending has been moribund throughout the year, as standards tightened and interest rates rose. But borrowers still need capital, and private lenders are increasingly meeting their needs.

The banking system has stabilized, but latent threats remain.

Households are better off today than before the pandemic.

Forecasting economic outcomes is a challenging exercise, even under steady conditions. Geopolitical events have only added to the complexity facing economies worldwide.

The longer the U.S. debt is left to grow, the harder it will be to correct.

The U.S. economy’s remarkable resilience is complicating the lives of investors and the Federal Reserve. Despite war-disrupted commodity markets and one of the most aggressive monetary tightening phases in modern history, economic activity has remained strong.

Higher long-term bond yields will allow the Fed to do less on short rates.

Women are still underrepresented among economics majors and in a range of professions.

Reverting to old fiscal rules will create a strong economic headwind for Europe.

Older workers can still be a source of relief for tight labor markets.

New bank rules will raise borrowing costs and weigh on economic activity.

The BoE will have to do more to bring inflation back down to target.

India will need to think beyond physical assets to continue its growth.

Resurgent energy prices could contribute to higher for longer monetary policy.

The strike comes at an inflection point for automotive production.

Evidence of China's slowdown is appearing in unexpected places.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.

The FOMC will make some close calls and tough decisions.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Measuring, anticipating and controlling the cost of healthcare are all difficult.

Higher yields on cash have allowed some de-risking.

A hard landing in China would rattle Asian economies.

Restricting the money supply will help contain inflation.

Credit balances are not the only consumer indicator running high.

The Fed's asset portfolio is on an uncharted course.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.

Volatile rates are adding to the cost of residential debt.

Disrupted global trade is weighing on Germany's performance.

Holding expectations low will help the battle against high prices.

Workers are finding a fresh enthusiasm for organizing.

Supply chains are realigning, to China's dismay.

Better productivity is easing employers' burden of higher wages.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Return to office mandates are growing, but workers are hesitant to give up flexibility.

Young workers are struggling to find jobs, despite labor shortages.

Geopolitics is driving new interest in industrial policy.

Public and private projects are fueling a new building boom.

The common currency has not led to common outcomes.

The nation's complex and contentious fiscal processes are deemed a credit risk.

The outlook for the British economy is sub-par.

How will we tell if the mythical soft landing is happening?

A change in Turkey's economic policies was long overdue.

A favorable inflation report is just one step in a long journey.

China's re-opening surge did not last.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

El Niño will test the resilience of both infrastructure and food supply chains.

Corporate profits are being challenged by market forces, diminishing pricing power.

Japan may uniquely benefit from a wage-price spiral.

An upturn in residential activity may be the next inflation challenge.

Income-driven repayment will ease the burden of resuming student loan payments.

Low commodity prices are containing inflation in emerging markets.

There is renewed anxiety among central bankers in the face of sticky inflation.

Economies are struggling to shake off effects of COVID.

We review the key themes of the first half of a busy year.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates, and inflation.

Volatile input prices have been a major inflationary force.

Sunsetting a core benchmark rate is no small feat.

A perennial challenge faced by all big or small, developed or developing economies is achieving sustainable economic growth that boosts standards of living and financial stability. Globalization has been the road that brought economies to that destination.

In many respects, COVID-19 was not a temporary disruption.

Inflation is one way the U.K. is paying for leaving Europe.

A debt ceiling deal is within sight.

Transit has not made a complete recovery from the pandemic.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.

Hong Kong’s currency and financial stability are not under immediate threat.

Both domestic and external forces may limit China's growth prospects.

The worst may be over for residential investment.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates, and inflation.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical hurdles are slowing the full recovery of tourism.

What follows a technical default? We hope we will not need to find out.

A wage-price spiral isn't imminent in Europe, but inflation may take a while to descend.

The Fed's tools for managing interest rates are adding to deposit competition.

The 2011 U.S. reality television show Doomsday Preppers showed an uncommon side of life, spotlighting families that prepared to survive extreme, potentially fatal scenarios. Their plans included accumulating a surplus of food, fuel, and other essentials, all of which came at a cost.

The Fed is likely to lay the groundwork for a pause, and push back against an early pivot.

We favor high yield bonds and natural resource stocks as inflation still shows persistence, earnings expectations deteriorate and worries mount over a stalling U.S. economy.

The latest IMF reports shows the mounting risks facing emerging markets.

The disruption in office real estate is outlasting the term on its loans.

How will tighter lending standards become evident in the economy?

Financial volatility continues to moderate amid settling in the banking sector. Economic data in much of the world has remained positive. But a slowdown is in store. Businesses and households will have a harder time borrowing as credit conditions tighten further. Financial risks have risen.

Housing stress may spread to other sectors.

Technology enhancements have increased the speed of panic.

The dollar's strengths still outweigh its weaknesses.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

The case for a central bank digital currency has many shortcomings.

Money market funds are attracting deposits for more reasons than just SVB.

The risk of Japanese inflation getting out of control is not high.

If I did not have bad luck, I would have no luck at all.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.

The demise of a major bank illustrates the global tensions in the financial sector.

The fallout from SVB will make the Fed's job more difficult.

The full story of SVB is still unfolding, but we offer some initial reactions.

Elevated job openings may not give an accurate view of labor market conditions.

If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.

Can India capitalize on supply chain realignment to build its manufacturing sector?

History shows a high risk of recession when central banks fight inflation.

A revised approach to Northern Ireland will lower trade tensions in Europe.

Artificial intelligence will reshape how a lot of work gets done.

A drawdown to fight energy inflation has left the SPR at a new low.

If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.

The war has been tremendously costly, in Ukraine and beyond.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

The U.S. needs to put in more effort at home to maintain its technological edge.

The auto industry is navigating through shifting conditions in trade, policy, and preferences.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.

Time out of school is still weighing on student performance.

Mexico is downstream of shifting trade winds.

Differing economic cycles and limited trade links will make the sur unfeasible.

Inflation has turned a corner, but not yet for food.

Markets are no longer shocked by central bank tightening.

Inflation is a mixed picture, with services staying hot.

Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.

Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.

America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.

A fiscal disruption could do great damage to the U.S. economy.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.

Many older workers who left the workforce during the pandemic may not return to the labor market.

Workers and managers are in a tug-of-war over return to office policies.

U.S. consumers did not slow their spending over the holidays.

A surprising shift in Japan's monetary policy.

The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2022.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for inflation, growth, employment and interest rates.

Central banks are incurring losses.

The recent escalation in interest rates is squeezing household budgets.

Disabled workers are helping close the labor gap thanks to remote work.

Europe needs higher investments, which will only be possible with an overhaul of its fiscal rules.

Inflation has spread to our holiday celebrations.