Slow Change Speeds Up

Chinese Bounce
Maximum Xi
Settlement Fight
Other China Thoughts
Russia: The Black Queen is Loose
Dallas and Home Alone

The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art. (Sadly, I wasn’t invited even though I have a few thoughts they should hear.)

While that particular gathering could use more balance, such discussions are still important. We can’t fully understand the economic outlook, whether for large corporations or individual investors, without considering the global forces that affect it.

Those forces aren’t simply economic, either. Political, social, demographic, and other factors influence how nations trade and interact. Technology—and access to it—is incredibly important. The world runs on energy. We call this mixture “geopolitics,” and it is hard to separate from economics.

We had a sharp reminder of this in 2022 when Russia’s attack on Ukraine produced economic warfare alongside the kinetic one. The global economic outlook shifted almost overnight as governments responded in unexpected ways.