Commentary

Inflation Reaches Unicorns

Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.

Commentary

Why Insiders Are Bullish When Nobody Else Is

Crypto meltdowns. Tech implosions. The biggest rate hike in decades.

Commentary

Gradually Worse

Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.

Commentary

I’m Buying Another Dirt-Cheap Energy Stock

Energy has been on quite a run.

Commentary

A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…

Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.

Commentary

No Soft Landings

The chance that all the necessary pieces will line up that way? Somewhere between slim and none, and as my dad used to say, “Slim left town.” And while my memory isn’t perfect, I don’t believe any speaker at the conference believed in the possibility of a soft landing. And even if we get one, we have serious problems that predate this inflation. They haven’t gone anywhere.

Commentary

Three Stocks to Buy in This Bear

There’s a silver lining to the current bear market…

Commentary

Rock and a Hard Place

It looks like the economy will grow for a while, just not very fast. And we simply don’t know what will happen when the Federal Reserve tightens in the face of a slowing economy. 

Commentary

Hardening of the Economies

As with bodily atherosclerosis, curing our economic condition may require lifestyle modifications. But in one sense, it will be even worse: We’re all going to get the cure whether we want it or not. We’ll get its side effects, too… and you can bet there will be many.

Commentary

Disruptor Stocks Are Dead

Investors are in a pickle.

Commentary

A Little Harder

The Strategic Investment Conference wrapped up this week with another wave of strong, fascinating speakers and panels. Today I have more to share and, as you’ll see, the plot thickened considerably.

Commentary

Chickenhawks

Jay Powell may think he is Paul Volcker, but he is not Paul Volcker.

Commentary

Soft Now, Hard Later

I borrowed this letter’s “Soft Now, Hard Later” headline from Dave Rosenberg. It was the title of his leadoff SIC presentation, for reasons I’ll explain.

Commentary

The Fed Is NGMI

My good friend Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory has written what I think is one of his most powerful letters ever. He’s basically saying the Fed just isn’t going to make it. I wish I had written it. He is such a wordsmith. With that, let’s turn it over to Ben.

Commentary

Into the Fire

If you haven’t noticed—perhaps because you live on Mars—inflation is here. Not just in the US but almost everywhere. Prices for everyday goods and services, including necessities like food, are climbing rapidly. The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% in the 12 months through March… and we know it understates categories like housing.