The Email Beige Book

I write a few newsletters, and I frequently get feedback from my subscribers. Sometimes, they’re just saying hello, and sometimes, they’re ripping on me, but sometimes, they’re telling me about things they see in the economy that are of interest. Oftentimes, they’re one-liners, like this one I got about five minutes ago:

Was talking to a buddy over the weekend who owns a pretty large recruiting firm that specializes in large-scale blue-collar projects, and he said that business has completely dried up.

Believe me when I tell you I have dozens of emails like this from people out in the real economy, telling me that the real economy is slowing down. Not just slowing down but hitting a wall. I call this my own personal email Beige Book, and it’s proven to be very accurate in predicting economic cycles over the years.

Contrary to what some people might believe, we still do have a business cycle in this country. We have periods of overinvestment and underinvestment. And even though it doesn’t seem that way, the economy is pretty sensitive to the level of interest rates.