Now that we’re about to enter the Christmas shopping season, expect even more focus than usual on the consumer over the next several weeks.
We are supply-siders and so usually cringe when we hear analysts and investors dwell on consumption as if it were the ultimate arbiter of economic growth. Ultimately the economy depends on production, which, in turn, hinges on entrepreneurship and innovation, the labor supply, as well as the health of cultural institutions like property rights and freedom of contract.
The government can affect these factors by raising or reducing tax rates, increasing or lowering spending, and adding or cutting regulations. Meanwhile, monetary policy can lead to temporary deviations from these long-run factors, with a policy that raises or reduces inflation.
On top of all this, the wild policy response to COVID – with enormous government checks sent directly to bank accounts – left consumers with more purchasing power than they’d normally have, given output. In turn, that has meant following the consumer is one way to gauge the extra inflationary impulse still remaining in the US economy, as well as the timing of the onset of the tighter monetary policy – the M2 measure of the money supply has dropped 4.4% – that the Federal Reserve began implementing last year.
In the year ending in September, “real” (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending is up 2.4%, no different than the growth rate in the ten years immediately prior to the onset of COVID. However, there are multiple reasons to believe that growth rate should soon decline.
First, much of the increase in spending in the past year has been driven by increases in jobs. Total payrolls are up 243,000 per month in the last year, which is unusually fast given an unemployment rate below 4.0%. A slowdown in job growth should limit the growth in consumer purchasing power.