Commentary

Respect the Bear

We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.

Commentary

Fed Goes Bigger

The Federal Reserve raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points) today, the most at any meeting since 1994 and exactly the move Chairman Jerome Powell was dismissive about in early May after the last meeting.

Commentary

Stocks Are Fairly Valued

Investors are worried.

Commentary

50 or More?

All eyes will be on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday when it announces how much it's going to raise short-term rates, its new projections for the economy and short-term rates for the next few years, as well as Chairman Powell's press conference.

Commentary

No Hurricane, Yet

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon caused a stir lately when he talked about a "hurricane" hitting the US economy.

Commentary

The Outlook for November

We are now about five months away from the mid-term elections that will decide who controls the Senate and House of Representatives for the next two years.

Commentary

Unprecedented

At least a couple of major retailer stocks got clobbered last week as investors sold on reports that they missed earnings estimates.

Commentary

Recession Unlikely in 2022

The consensus among economists puts the odds of a recession starting sometime in the next year at 30%, according to Bloomberg's most recent survey.

Commentary

Reducing Our Stock Market Forecasts

At the end of 2021, we set out our projections for the stock market in 2022: 5,250 for the S&P 500 and 40,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Commentary

Research Reports

"Transitory" is out, "expeditious" is in.

Commentary

Whipping Inflation

Ultimately, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, as the late great economist Milton Friedman used to say.

Commentary

Focus on the Money, Not Rates

No one can say that the Federal Reserve can't do the impossible.

Commentary

Slower Growth in Q1

Real GDP, in the US, grew 5.5% in 2021, the fastest growth for any calendar year since the Reagan Boom in the mid-1980s.

Commentary

Housing: Heartburn, Not a Heart Attack

When interest rates go up, many analysts start to worry about recessions.

Commentary

We Are All Keynesians Now

Intellectuals and politicians often try to verbally summarize or justify conventional thinking in pithy ways.