Commentary

The Fed Waffles

The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday.

Commentary

Research Reports

The Fed raised short-term rates by another 25 basis points (bp) today and made no changes to the expected peak for short-term rates later this year.

Commentary

Heading Toward a National Bank?

The late great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was often in dissent in key legal cases during his long career.

Commentary

What Happened to the Recession?

In multiple ways, this is the most difficult time we have ever seen to make a forecast.

Commentary

Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing

In the past few weeks, a growing chorus of economists and investors have decided that the pessimistic narrative had it wrong all along, that the US isn’t headed for a hard landing, which would mean a recession, it isn’t even headed for a soft landing, which would mean a prolonged period of low economic growth.

Commentary

Monetary Mayhem Clouds Crystal Ball

You can’t read or watch financial news these days without a heavy dose of speculation about what the Fed is going to do with short-term interest rates, when it’s going to do it, and how long it’s going to do it for.

Commentary

January Data Get Hot

Markets have been volatile, with reports convincing many that the Fed is done hiking rates.

Commentary

The Game Isn't Over

At the beginning of the season, not many predicted that the Philadelphia Eagles would be in the Super Bowl this year.

Commentary

Research Reports

The Fed downshifted to a smaller rate hike to start 2023, but the job is far from done.

Commentary

Debt Limit Drama

The US federal budget is on an unsustainable path…but not for the reasons that most people think.

Commentary

Rearview Mirror OK, Collision Ahead

First, the good news: we estimate that real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter.

Commentary

Soft Landing?

We wrote last week about the soft landing that markets now seem to expect.

Commentary

Not Goldilocks

Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead, “just right.”

Commentary

The Housing Outlook for 2023

The housing sector was a huge and early beneficiary of the super-loose monetary policy of 2020-21.

Commentary

Is the BLS Cooking the Books?

Last week Zero Hedge achieved the impossible, they managed to make a report from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve go viral.