Vehicle Sales Inch Up 0.4% in May

Here is the complete series data from 1976. We've added a linear regression to further illustrate the direction of the long-term trend. The latest moving average value is 10.8% below its record high in July 2005.

Vehicle Sales: Heavy Trucks

Heavy truck sales rose a second straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.402 million units in May. This represents a 5.2% increase from the previous month but an 11.4% drop from one year ago. Additionally, the nine-month exponential moving average is now at 0.389 million units.

Here is the complete series data from 1967. Again, we've added a linear regression to further illustrate the direction of the long-term trend. The latest moving average value for heavy trucks is 28.3% below its record high in October 2006.

Vehicle Sales: Population-Adjustment

Since 1967, the civilian non-institutional population age 16 and over (i.e., driving age, not in the military, or an inmate) has risen about 64.5%. For a more accurate representation of vehicle sales, our next charts focus on the population-adjusted data by implementing two key modifications:

1. We've created a per-capita version using the FRED's CNP16OV series for the adjustment.
2. We've indexed the numbers so that the first data point, January 1976, equals 100.

The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more almost 50 years, it is now down 38.4% from that peak.

The moving average for heavy truck vehicle sales per capita series peaked in May 1973. Over 50 years later, it is now down 58.7% from that peak.

Automotive ETFs include: Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (DRIV), First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles & Technology ETF (CARZ), and iShares Self-driving EV & Tech ETF (IDRV).

Read more updates by Jen Nash