Consumer sentiment falls in October to a five month low. The preliminary October reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 46.3. This marks a 3.7% (1.8 points) decrease from September. Consumer sentiment sits 13.6% below where it was a year ago and is currently below the 1st percentile in the series' history.
Key Takeaways
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The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading fell to 46.3 in October, a 3.7% decrease from September.
- The Current Economic Conditions Index fell 12.2% to 44.7, while the Consumer Expectations Index rose 2.2% to 47.3.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations increased from 4.6% to 4.7% from September.
Joanne Hsu, the director of surveys, made the following comments:
Consumer sentiment was little changed this month, inching down a scant 1.8 index points from September. While year-ahead expectations for personal finances and business conditions crept up slightly, buying conditions for durables plummeted amid high prices and borrowing costs. Increases in sentiment among Democrats and Republicans were offset by a decline among independents this month. Overall, sentiment for lower-income consumers and those with smaller stock portfolios dropped steeply this month, groups that have fewer resources to weather increases in prices. Frustration over cost-of-living continues to mount, as consumers across the political spectrum believe that the trajectory of the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year.
Background on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey of consumer confidence levels in the U.S. with regards to the economy, personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions, conducted by the University of Michigan. There are two reports released each month; a preliminary report released mid-month and a final report released at the end of the month.
The chart below provides a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. We have highlighted the index's value at the start of each recession. The current level of 46.3 is below the index's value at the start of all six recessions since its inception.
To put today’s report in historical context, consumer sentiment is currently 44.6% below its average reading of 83.6 (arithmetic mean) and 43.7% below its geometric mean of 82.3, based on data dating back to 1978.
To visualize the volatility and its impact on the broader economy, the following chart includes a three-month moving average and real GDP. Historically, prolonged periods where the moving average remains at these depressed levels have closely correlated with negative GDP growth (the red bars below).
The Political and Presidential Lens of Consumer Sentiment
Each month, the survey results highlight sentiment within each political party. Sentiment is often viewed through a partisan lens, but the data shows that sentiment has fluctuated both positively and negatively under both Republican and Democratic administrations. As the chart below illustrates, the current "plunge" is a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, with declines seen across the political spectrum as energy costs hit every household.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Components
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index consists of two sub-indexes: the Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI) and the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI). The CECI reflects consumers' views of their current financial situation and the overall economy, while the CEI gauges their outlook for the future.
Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI)
The Current Economic Conditions Index fell to 44.7. This represents a 12.2% decrease from the previous month and a 23.7% drop from a year ago. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.5.
Consumer Expectations Index (CEI)
The Consumer Expectations Index fell to 47.3. This represents a 2.2% increase from the previous month and a 6.0% drop from one year ago. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 45.9.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Inflation Expectations
Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 4.6% last month to 4.7% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations also stepped up from 3.4% in September to 3.5%, notably higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%. Inflation expectations over both time horizons increased for the second straight month to their highest readings since May.
The next update to this report will be published on October 23rd.
Other Sentiment Indicators
For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see the most recent Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. Both indexes gauge consumer attitudes toward the current and future strength of the economy. However, the Consumer Confidence Index is more influenced by employment and labor market conditions while the Michigan Sentiment Index is more focused on household finances and the impact of inflation.
The Conference Board index is the more volatile of the two, but the broad pattern and general trends have been remarkably similar to the Michigan index.
And finally, the prevailing mood of the Michigan survey is also similar to the mood of small business owners, as captured by the NFIB business optimism Index (monthly update here).
ETFs associated with sentiment include: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY).
Read more updates by Jen Nash
