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Commentary

2023 Outlook for Emerging Markets, “A year of Two halves”

Emerging Markets (EM) assets were subject to three strong headwinds in 2022, namely, China’s zero Covid-19 and real estate crisis, aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Russia invasion of Ukraine.

Commentary

Emerging Markets Equity: Catalysts for Stock Market Leadership Transition

The world is in a very different macroeconomic position today compared to the prior forty years.

Commentary

The Reality of ESG Integration in Emerging Markets Equity

Successful investing in Emerging Markets is inextricably linked to a deep understanding of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors.

Commentary

An Established Case and Emerging Trends for Frontier Markets Equity Investing

The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.

Commentary

The USD Bear Trap and EM USD Debt

Even though the medium-to-long term US Dollar fundamentals remain unimpressive, due to a combination of large external imbalances, a continuous dependence on foreign investors’ inflows and the weaponisation of the currency, the Dollar became the least bad currency in G4 since the beginning of the Ukraine war

Commentary

The Case For EM In A Multipolar World

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world.

Commentary

Equity Outlook 2022: Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets (EM) have demonstrated their resilience during the greatest economic shock since the Global Financial Crisis.

Commentary

Four Mega-Trends Shaping the 2022 Outlook and Beyond

The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.

Commentary

A Consolidation Path for Chinese Property

Chinese property markets are going through a significant slowdown that began in Q2 2021. The average slowdown in the previous episodes over the last 20 years lasted four quarters.

Commentary

Living With Inflation: A New Macroeconomic Regime

The fiscal and monetary policy responses to the Covid-19 shock aided demand and allowed for a v-shaped economic recovery starting in 2020. Further fiscal stimulus boosting demand in 2021 were met with supply shocks, bringing US and EU inflation to the highest levels since 2008. Emerging Markets (EM) experienced some inflationary pressures, albeit much more modest than Developed Markets (DM).

Commentary

China’s new development strategy: greener, less unequal, more sustainable

The country’s leadership has designed a new development model, based on a ‘common prosperity’ philosophy, aimed at modernising the economy by improving the country’s future demographic profile via lowering inequality and promoting sustainable, even if slower, GDP growth which is both less dependent on financial leverage and in harmony with nature.

Commentary

Measuring EM Stocks’ Undervaluation

What is the degree of Emerging Markets (EM) stocks’ undervaluation relative to United States (US) equities?

Commentary

Opportunities In Local Currency Assets After The Sharp Dollar Move

The Fed meeting last week led to higher asset price volatility across asset classes.

Commentary

US Inflation Unlikely to Pose a Serious Threat to EM

Inflation is likely to remain high in 2021. The primary source of price pressures is the rebound in commodity prices after their sharp collapse last year.

Commentary

Seven Policy Proposals to Meet the Paris Agreement Objectives

The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.