How Long Do Cyclical Bull Markets Last?
Has the S&P 500 gone loco? Or is it behaving normally?
Stock Market "Holy Grail?"
A new study from Research Affiliates finds U.S. equities “currently overvalued but not as much as suggested by the historical averages.”
U.S. Equities vs U.S. Yield Curve
Will rising interest rates crush the bull market in equities? We recently concluded that rising rates are not a deal breaker, as long as earnings accelerate faster than the discount rate. Earnings have kept their end of the bargain so far. But let’s keep thinking.
Political Cycle or Business Cycle?
Is today’s cyclical bull market all about Donald J. Trump, as the financial media insists? Or are other factors at play? We know that a bull market was signaled by classic breadth thrust, well ahead of the November election.
Narratives Gone Wild: Investing in the Post-Election World
Warning. Investment “narratives” may be harmful to your financial health.
Forward P/E ratios are a bit of a joke. Why? Because Wall Street analysts overestimate prospective earnings 80% of the time. Chart 1 shows only six years since 1984 with conservative forecasts, offering objective proof – as if needed – that Wall Street is not your friend.