Commentary

Year-End Updates Part III

The third and final set of year-end updates to the Crestmont Research.

Commentary

Crestmont Research Year-End Updates Part I

As long as good economic conditions prevail, significant downside risk in the stock market is likely to be deferred, and the market will likely benefit from its current momentum.

Commentary

Quarterly Commentary

This article explores the value of understanding and assessing the environment over your investment horizon. Market weather may be hard to predict, but market climate can be credibly determined.

Commentary

Quarterly Commentary

Many people don't realize that recessions are relatively common and frequent. Before 1930, recessions occurred equally 1 to 4 times per decade. After 1930, recessions occur once per decade about a third of the time and twice per decade about two-thirds of the time. If history is a guide, we should expect 1 to 2 recessions each decade.

Commentary

Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles

The word secular originates from a series of Latin words that mean an extended period of time or an era. It is actually closer to you than you might realize.

Commentary

Exit from Wonderland: Change Is Now on the Horizon

Many investors and advisors are unsure about the current financial market environment. They have been wrestling with how to weight equities and whether to include alternative investments. Although equities have performed well in recent years, many alternatives have lagged expectations. This should not be surprising: the financial world is operating just as the Fed has intended.
Commentary

Nightmare on Wall Street: This Secular Bear Has Only Just Begun

Secular bull markets are great parties. Investors arrive from secular bears really wanting to take the edge off. As the bull proceeds, above-average returns become intoxicating. By the time it is over, the past decade or two has delivered bountiful returns. In contrast, secular bears seem like hangovers. They are awakenings that strip away the intoxication, leaving a sobering need for an understanding of what has happened.