Commentary

How Donald Trump’s Return Could Shape the Economy and Markets

Here’s our outlook on what to expect and how investors might navigate this new phase.

Commentary

Jobs Report Supports Inflationary Pressures Despite Fed’s Dovish Moves

The latest Employment Situation Report released on October 4, 2024, showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 in September, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

Commentary

Fed’s Rate Cut: What It Means for the Economy and Investors

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 4.75% to 5%. This move, aimed at managing inflationary pressures while addressing the gradual rise in unemployment, underscores the Fed’s balancing act between fostering economic growth and taming inflation.

Commentary

Latest CPI Numbers Signal Potential Problems for 2025

As we approach the end of 2024, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has provided us with critical insights into the health of the U.S. economy, particularly concerning inflation.

Commentary

Inflation’s Hidden Risks: A Dive into the July CPI Report

The current economic landscape is fraught with uncertainty, and the potential for higher inflation continues to pose a real threat to market stability.

Commentary

Be Aware of the Sahm Rule Trigger, but Don’t Panic

Recent developments in the labor market triggered the Sahm Rule, an economic indicator known for predicting the onset of recessions. Developed by economist Claudia Sahm, it signals a recession when the 3-month average of the unemployment rate rises by at least 0.5 percentage points above its low from the previous 12 months.

Commentary

Recent Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements a Mixed Bag for Global Liquidity

On July 31, the U.S. Treasury released its most recent Quarterly Refunding Announcement which revealed its financing strategy, presenting both positive and restrictive elements for global liquidity.

Commentary

Global Liquidity and the Treasury General Account: A Potential Constraint on Market Performance

As we approach the end of the fiscal year, investors should be focusing on the Treasury General Account as one factor of many that may impact global liquidity, and in turn, market performance in the coming two quarters.

Commentary

Inflation Slowdown in Latest CPI Release: A Temporary Reprieve Amid Looming Risks

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) release has brought some much-needed respite, indicating a slowdown in inflation. Yet, underlying economic conditions suggest that this reprieve may be temporary, with potential for inflationary pressures to reassert themselves in the coming months.

Commentary

2Q23 Update & Outlook

Interest rates are at 20-yr highs, yet unemployment is at 50-yr lows, core-PCE is near 30-yr highs, and Wall Street (and Fed) economic forecasts continue improving. What explains the disconnect between these unexpected outcomes and those expected by mainstream economic textbooks?

Commentary

Washington Goes Full Orwellian

An audacious communications campaign from Democrats in Washington is currently underway that is attempting to convince the public that there is no recession, inflation has been vanquished, even if inflation is still alive, targeted new Federal legislation will kill it.

Commentary

The Fed Girds For Battle

Our weekly commentaries provide Euro Pacific Capital's latest thinking on developments in the global marketplace.

Commentary

March Madness in the Bond Market

There was a little March Madness on Wall Street.

Commentary

The Year Of Living Dangerously

2021 is now in the rear-view mirror and I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.

Commentary

Transitory Permanence

The inflation that we were emphatically told would be transitory and unmoored continues to persist and entrench. As the troubles gather momentum Washington is doing...