First Pacific Advisors

Although we cannot impose our will on this administration as to Mr. Bernankes continued role at the Fed, we would at least like to make our case for a Fed chairman more aware (at least publicly) of the unintended consequences of ultra easy monetary policy, and one with less hubris.

2013 is a critical moment in time. If a material and timely fiscal restructuring does not take place by next September, I fear and believe that it will not occur before 2017. Unfortunately, if this were to occur, my 2009 warning of a crisis of equal or greater magnitude than the Great Recession by 2017 would be a more likely outcome. My worst fear is that fiscal gridlock continues, coupled with the policies of this activist Fed Chairman. Todays Fed actions add to my anxieties. ALL IN may be a good strategy for poker but not for this economy.

I know many of you would like more actionable ideas but principal protection is uppermost in my mind. Patience is required now. Many investors underestimate the potential risks and disruptiveness from high global financial leverage. We are in phase 2 of a continuing and expanding economic and financial market instability. Flexibility, high liquidity, and concentrated asset deployment, when appropriate, will be key elements in attaining superior investment performance. The era of being fully invested and adjusting portfolio weights relative to an index has been over for more than a decade.

We find investing especially challenging todaynot that its ever been easy. We feel like we are forced to bet on policy, and how does one do that? Particularly when we believe we are betting that too many of the wrong people will make the right decisions. We feel a little like explorers, blazing new trails, learning about the new world weve come upon, charting a different path with new information, all while trying to avoid being scalped. We continue to seek the best path, even if its new, to both protect your capital (first) and to provide a return on it (second).

Early this morning there was a coordinated response by several foreign central banks to provide liquidity to Europe and European financial institutions. These actions were not factored into the market but were always a possibility. I've been looking for some type of European bilateral fiscal agreements, along with ECB and IMF participation, to help stem the crisis. My estimate has been that something had to be done between December 2 and 9 that played into key upcoming ECB meetings. Any announcement that did not contain a response from these meetings could unravel the markets further.

An unresolved European sovereign and financial dilemma, in concert with a U.S. economy thats been a disappointment compared to the once-rosy projections of most economists, caused global markets to retreat in the third quarter. Crescent declined as well, but it fell 30% less than the U.S. market for the quarter and 40% less in the year-to-date period. The U.S. markets actually fared quite favorably and Crescent more favorably still when viewed in context of the global financial upheaval.

Here is address given at the 2009 Morningstar conference which has just as much relevance now as it did then. Last years performance was a terrible one for the market averages as well as for mutual fund active portfolio managers. It did not matter the style, asset class or geographic region. We managers did not deliver the goods and we must explain why. In letters to shareholder will this failure be chalked up to bad luck, an inability to identify a changing governmental environment or to some other excuse? We owe them more than simple platitudes, if we expect to regain their confidence.

What would it take for me to shift to a more optimistic longer term outlook? First, there should be a discussion and then implementation of real and substantive congressional budgetary reforms that have a standing in law. Without this change, a future congress can overturn any of the expenditure cuts that are voted on today but are not implemented until much later. With a congressional approval rating of 13%, the American public should demand nothing less because the Congress cannot be trusted. Both parties are equally responsible for the fiscal mess the nation faces.

We pay attention to the macro environment because it sometimes allows us to identify significant opportunities and, at other times, to avoid or limit catastrophic risk. We still find ourselves worrying today, particularly about unreasonable government budgets that have helped foster unmanageable burdens. Over the past three years we have witnessed a shift in financial obligations from the personal to the public (governments) that has done nothing to enhance the solvency of the overall system, although the optics appear favorable to some.

As it stands today, without a combination of reducing the growth of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security and/or increasing taxes, the Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2022 these three programs and interest payments alone will consume all the government?s yearly revenue. That means running a single program in any of the other federal departments would immediately create a deficit for the year. And 2022 is only eleven years away!

The optimists held sway in the first quarter of 2011 and ended the quarter on a good note, with the stock market having returned 5.9%. Crescent returned 4.7%, capturing 80% of the market?s return with risk exposure at just 58% of capital during the period. Two investments ? Aon and Covidien ? accounted for more than 10% of the Fund?s return in the period. No investment detracted from the return to that degree. The greatest negative impact in the quarter came from Microsoft (down 19 bps), a holding we have increased to take advantage of price weakness, given the current low expectations.

The major issue affecting global markets continues to be the amount of debt outstanding worldwide. Governments and consumers in many of the world?s developed countries are under the microscope as lenders question whether these borrowers will be able to make interest and principal payments on their loans. We expect these concerns to remain for some time to come.

We do not have a strong view as to what will transpire over the intermediate-term with respect to the economy or securities markets, nor do we have a great love for the opportunities the markets have to offer. In general, we require more upside than the market currently permits, because the downside (for reasons discussed) is not inconsequential. Taking a look at the S&P 400 Midcap Index gives some idea as to why that may be the case. Midcap stocks have increased 129% since the 2009 trough. That kind of move generally sucks the oxygen out of the room as far as good risk/reward investments go.

In the world of investment management, results are typically measured each quarter. While markets sometimes experience a dramatic shift in the course of ninety days, usually the most important influences on the economy evolve more slowly. That is the situation today, where from our perspective, little about the investment backdrop has changed in 2010. This commentary summarizes our view of the current situation, the policy options available and likely outcomes.

After the events in Greece, it was clear that the shift from expansion to fiscal tightening would put a damper on economic growth. The question of whether the U.S. economy will fall into a double-dip recession therefore misses the larger point. If another recession happens, markets will weaken, governments will stimulate, and the whole cycle will start again. If the economy avoids the second dip, however, the level of economic growth for the next five years should still be lower than the five that preceded the downturn.